“金九银十”行情下聚烯烃现实与预期背离的形成原因及后市展望

Report Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints - In 2025, during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, the polyolefin market deviated from expectations due to intensified supply - demand imbalance, with prices being low. The market is showing bottom characteristics, but upward pressure is significant. Polyethylene is expected to be stronger than polypropylene, and the LP main contract spread will widen, yet the overall pattern remains weakly oscillating [1][44]. Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Market Analysis - Main Contract Trends: In previous "Golden September and Silver October" periods, polyolefins had a high probability of a bull market. However, in 2025, prices declined instead. By mid - to late October, the LLDPE main contract fell below 6,900 yuan/ton, down over 10% from the beginning of the year, and the PP main contract once reached a low of 6,500 yuan/ton [5]. - Spot Price Trends: Polyethylene spot prices were structurally differentiated, with LLDPE having the largest annual decline of up to 30.50%. Polypropylene spot prices were also weak, with a maximum decline of over 10% [8]. - Main Contract Basis Trends: In 2025, the polyethylene main contract basis showed an inverted N - shaped downward trend, with an annual range of (0, 1200) yuan/ton. The PP basis was relatively stable, with a range of (0, 600) yuan/ton [11]. - Contract Month - spread Trends: As of October 17, the polyethylene 1 - 5 contract month - spread was - 33 yuan/ton, stronger than last month but weaker than last year. The polypropylene 1 - 5 contract month - spread was - 52 yuan/ton, weaker than both last month and last year [16]. - Main Contract Spread Trends: Since 2025, the LP main contract spread has oscillated between (0, 650) yuan/ton. As of October 17, it was 323 yuan/ton, up from last month but down from last year [19]. 2. Analysis of the Reasons for the Weak Market - Weak Downstream Demand: Despite the peak season, the overall downstream polyolefin operating rate only slightly rebounded and was lower than in previous years. The demand - boosting effect of domestic stimulus policies was diminishing, and downstream enterprises adopted a low - inventory strategy with weak restocking motivation [20]. - High Supply Pressure: In 2025, the polyolefin industry was in a capacity expansion cycle. From January to September, 3.93 million tons of polyethylene and 3.66 million tons of polypropylene were put into production, with more planned for the fourth quarter. Although there were many device overhauls in the second and third quarters, the marginal effect decreased, and supply pressure increased [32]. - Weak Cost Support: In the third quarter of 2025, crude oil prices weakened. OPEC+ continued to increase production in October, and the fourth - quarter demand was expected to decline, causing the oil price to drop. Other raw material prices also fell, weakening cost support for polyolefins [37]. - High Inventory Pressure: As of October 17, polyethylene and polypropylene inventories were at relatively high levels. The inventory digestion was slow, and with the end of "Golden September and Silver October", demand growth was limited, while supply pressure remained, hindering the de - stocking process [40]. 3. Outlook for the Future - Price Bottoming with Support: After continuous price declines, the polyolefin market is showing bottom characteristics. International crude oil prices are at a relatively low level, and production profits are severely squeezed, forcing enterprises to adjust production loads. Also, the market has priced in current negative factors, reducing the downward momentum [45]. - Weakly Oscillating Market with Upward Pressure: The polyolefin market is in a key stage of supply - demand re - balance. Due to high supply pressure and weak demand, it will continue to oscillate at the bottom. The LLDPE main contract is expected to oscillate between 7,000 - 7,500 yuan/ton, and the PP main contract between 6,900 - 7,200 yuan/ton, with a strategy of shorting on rallies [46]. - Differentiated Internal Trends: Polyethylene is expected to be stronger than polypropylene in the fourth quarter due to less new - capacity pressure and better inventory conditions. The LP main contract spread will widen, presenting arbitrage opportunities [47].