养殖油脂产业链日报策略报告-20251024

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Soybean Oil: The main 01 contract of soybean oil continued to adjust weakly on Thursday. The increase in Malaysian palm oil production data led to a decline in the overall oil and fat market. China's soybean oil inventory is accumulating, with sufficient supply. Although the short - term upward drive of the futures price is insufficient, the expectation is positive. It is not recommended to chase short - selling. The support level of the main contract is 8100 - 8130 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 8400 - 8450 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the results of recent Sino - US trade negotiations [3]. - Rapeseed Oil: The main contract of rapeseed oil fell again. The increase in Malaysian palm oil production and the non - realization of the palm oil production reduction expectation led to a weak adjustment of the futures price, which in turn drove down the rapeseed oil price. China's rapeseed oil inventory is at a relatively high level, and the sentiment of relaxing the import policy of Canadian rapeseeds is rising. However, the short - term import supply of rapeseed is tightening, and the inventory is declining, so the basis remains firm. The main contract continued to reduce positions and volume, and the market sentiment was weak. The market may oscillate and adjust. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [4]. - Palm Oil: The main 01 contract of palm oil adjusted weakly on Thursday. The increase in Malaysian palm oil production led to a decline in the palm oil price, weakening the strong expectation in the fourth quarter. As the palm oil in the producing areas is about to enter the production - reduction season, it is not advisable to chase short - selling. The short - term palm oil may test the support in the 9000 - 9050 range, and the pressure level is 9350 - 9400. It is advisable to wait and see for the time being [4]. - Soybean No.2 and Soybean Meal: The main 11 contract of CBOT soybeans remained firm, and the main 01 contract of soybean meal rose. Frequent Sino - US trade negotiations and the expectation of an increase in US soybean exports supported the price of CBOT soybeans. China's domestic inventory of soybean meal is sufficient, and the further downward drive is weakening. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [5]. - Rapeseed Meal: Rapeseed meal stopped falling and rebounded. Affected by weak demand and the easing of Sino - Canadian trade relations, the rapeseed meal market had been weak. However, the cumulative import volume of rapeseeds from January to September decreased by 42.2% year - on - year, and the inventory continued to decline, providing some support for the weak demand. The current fundamentals are weak in both supply and demand, and the futures price is expected to oscillate and adjust. It is recommended to go long on the 01 contract oil - meal ratio [5][6]. - Corn and Corn Starch: The futures prices continued to oscillate and consolidate on Thursday. The external market changed little. In the domestic market, the new - season harvest is in the middle and late stages. The continuous rainy weather in North China has brought new differences to the market. The short - term upward space of the futures price is still limited. It is recommended to reduce short positions on dips or pay attention to the reverse spread of the corn 1 - 5 spread [6]. - Soybean No.1: The main 01 contract of soybean No.1 rose on Thursday. The high - quality soybeans in Northeast China are in high demand, and due to low valuation, farmers are reluctant to sell. After continuous rises, the long - position holders are cautious, and the selling - hedging drive increases. It is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see [7]. - Peanuts: The peanut futures price continued to oscillate and decline. The market lacks positive news. The new - season peanuts are gradually on the market, but the harvest weather is unfavorable, which increases concerns about the new - season output. Although the planting area has increased, the expected increase in production is discounted. There is still pressure from seasonal supply on the spot and futures prices. It is recommended to hold long positions for the time being [7]. - Pigs: The futures price of pigs adjusted weakly on Thursday. The spot price stopped falling this week, and the futures price rebounded after reducing positions. The market volatility remained high due to the Sino - US tariff restart negotiation. The current pig - to - grain ratio has fallen below 5. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being for conservative investors. For mid - term investment, wait for the confirmation of capacity reduction and then buy the 2607 contract on dips [8][9]. - Eggs: The egg futures price rebounded after reducing positions on Thursday. The spot price was stable with a slight decline this week, and the decline slowed down. The egg futures price has fallen below the historical low since 2016. It is not advisable to chase short - selling. Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy the 2512 contract on dips when the price is below the farmers' cash cost [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Market Analysis - Most varieties in the feed, breeding, and oil and fat industries are expected to oscillate and adjust. For example, soybean No.1, soybean No.2, peanuts, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, palm oil, soybean meal, and rapeseed meal are all in an oscillating adjustment state. Corn and corn starch are expected to be in a low - level oscillation. Pigs and eggs are in an oscillating bottom - seeking state [12]. 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - Inter - period Arbitrage: For most varieties, it is recommended to wait and see, such as soybean No.1 11 - 1, soybean No.2 11 - 1, etc. For the corn 5 - 1 spread, it is recommended to go long on dips with a reference target of 180 - 200. For the pig 1 - 3 spread, it is recommended to do a positive spread on dips [13]. - Inter - variety Arbitrage: For some spreads, such as 01 soybean oil - palm oil, it is recommended to operate bearishly; for 01 rapeseed oil - soybean oil, it is recommended to operate bullishly; for the 01 contract oil - meal ratio of beans and rapeseeds, it is recommended to operate bullishly [13]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies - The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various varieties in different sectors, including soybeans, rapeseed, palm oil, etc. For example, the spot price of soybean No.1 is 3980 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main contract is - 133 yuan/ton [14]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oilseeds and Oils - Daily Data: It shows the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping periods, including CNF prices, import duty - paid prices, and the cost of soybean meal when the profit is zero [15][16]. - Weekly Data: It presents the inventory and operating rates of various oilseeds and oils. For example, the port inventory of soybeans is 773.35 (with a change of 21.92), and the operating rate of soybean processing plants is 58.00% [17]. 3.2.2 Feed - Daily Data: It provides the import cost data of corn from Argentina and Brazil in different months [18]. - Weekly Data: It shows the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and inventory of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises [18]. 3.2.3 Breeding - It includes the daily and weekly data of pigs and eggs, such as the price, weight, and profit of pigs, as well as the price, production rate, and inventory of eggs [19][20][21][23]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - The report provides a series of charts to track the fundamentals of the breeding, oilseeds and oils, and feed sectors, including the closing prices of futures contracts, spot prices, basis, spreads, production, export, inventory, and other data of various varieties [24][35][52]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Breeding, and Oils - The report shows the historical volatility of futures prices of varieties such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio of corn options [86][87][88]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Breeding, and Oils - It presents the warehouse receipt quantities of various varieties, including rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, pigs, and eggs, as well as the open interest of the pig and egg indexes [91][92][94].