新能源产业链日度策略-20251024

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Carbonate Lithium: The post - holiday downstream restocking enthusiasm exceeded expectations, but the demand growth rate may decline in the fourth quarter. The short - term price increase is not expected to be sustainable. The price is likely to fall after rising, and enterprises should seize hedging opportunities [3][4]. - Industrial Silicon: The supply is expected to remain at a high level, and the demand is fair during the peak season. However, the future supply pressure may increase. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range due to cost support [4]. - Polysilicon: High production enthusiasm leads to increased output, while terminal demand is weak, resulting in inventory accumulation. The market shows a situation of strong expectation and weak reality, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [6][7]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog First Part: Spot Price 1.1 Plate Strategy Recommendation - Carbonate Lithium 11: Short - term supply and demand are both strong, but there is a risk of seasonal decline in demand. The support level is 68,000 - 70,000, and the pressure level is 80,000 - 82,000. The price is expected to fall after rising. Upstream enterprises should seize the opportunity of selling hedging when the price rises, and downstream cathode material enterprises should pay attention to low - level stockpiling or buying hedging [13]. - Industrial Silicon 11: Supply - demand pressure is increasing, and the price is under pressure. However, there is certain policy support at the bottom. The support level is 8,200 - 8,300, and the pressure level is 9,200 - 9,300. It is recommended to maintain a range - trading idea and hold low - position long orders cautiously [13]. - Polysilicon 11: Fundamental pressure is gradually transmitted to the upstream. Before the capacity control policy is implemented, the market may fluctuate. The support level is 47,000 - 48,000, and the pressure level is 52,000 - 53,000. It is recommended to take profit on previous long orders and consider short - selling opportunities on rebounds [13]. - Arbitrage Recommendation: There are no good arbitrage opportunities at present [14]. 1.2 Futures and Spot Price Changes | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | Warehouse Receipts | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Carbonate Lithium | 79,940 | 3.66% | 490,920 | 419,147 | 65,916 | 28,759 | | Industrial Silicon | 8,705 | 2.59% | 172,346 | 76,195 | - 20,359 | 48,371 | | Polysilicon | 50,760 | 1.05% | 86,148 | 45,407 | - 3,609 | 9,220 | [14] Second Part: Fundamental Situation 2.1 Carbonate Lithium Fundamental Data - Production and Inventory: This week, the production was 21,308 tons, a new weekly high. The total sample inventory was 130,366 tons, a decrease of 2,292 tons from the previous week. The inventory days dropped below 40 days [3]. - Downstream Situation: Not elaborated in detail in the given text, but there are related figures such as phosphoric acid iron - lithium production capacity and device operation rate [25]. 2.2 Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data - Production and Inventory: The dry season is approaching, with some factories in the southwest shutting down and some resuming production in the northwest. The overall supply is expected to remain high [4]. - Downstream Situation: The demand is fair during the peak season, but the polysilicon industry has supply pressure, and future production may decrease [4]. 2.3 Polysilicon Fundamental Data - Production and Inventory: High profits drive high production enthusiasm, and the output in October will exceed expectations. However, downstream production cuts have led to obvious inventory accumulation [6]. - Downstream Situation: Terminal demand is weak, as shown by the new photovoltaic installed capacity in August hitting a new low for the year [6].