生鲜软商品板块日度策略报告-20251024

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Soft Commodity Sector: Crude oil's strength boosts raw sugar sentiment. Zheng sugar's rebound may face pressure due to increased industrial hedging. For paper pulp, supply remains high, and terminal demand improvement is limited, so the rebound height may be restricted. Double - offset paper has limited demand improvement in the peak season and supply pressure, with limited cost support. Cotton prices are affected by Sino - US trade news and may fluctuate in a range. - Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Sector: New - season apples have small fruit sizes and low premium fruit rates, supporting far - month contracts. Red dates' prices are recommended for short - selling for aggressive investors and anti - spread strategies for cautious investors [3][4][5][7][8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - Fresh Fruit Futures: For Apple 2605, a bullish view is recommended due to small fruit sizes and low premium fruit rates, with a support range of 7900 - 8000 and a pressure range of 9500 - 9600. For Red Dates 2601, short - selling at high prices is advised, with a support range of 10500 - 11000 and a pressure range of 11500 - 12000 [18]. - Soft Commodity Futures: Sugar 2601 suggests range - bound operations with a support range of 5350 - 5370 and a pressure range of 5470 - 5500. Pulp 2601 is recommended for range - bound short positions, with a support range of 4900 - 4900 and a pressure range of 5200 - 5300. Double - offset paper 2601 recommends short - selling on rebounds, with a support range of 4100 - 4200 and a pressure range of 4400 - 4500. Cotton 2601 advises holding short positions cautiously, with a support range of 12800 - 13000 and a pressure range of 13600 - 13700 [18]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes - Apple Market: In September 2025, fresh apple exports were about 70,800 tons, up 3.50% month - on - month and down 6.32% year - on - year. In the spot market, prices in different regions showed different trends. Shandong's acquisition price was higher than last year, while Shaanxi's price was stable at a high level. Sales in the distribution areas were stable [19]. - Red Dates Market: The physical inventory of 36 sample points was 9167 tons, down 36 tons from last week, a 0.39% month - on - month decrease and a 93.89% year - on - year increase. Attention is paid to the circulation of old - season goods and price changes before the new - season harvest [22]. - Sugar Market: The sugar mills in the border area of Karnataka and Maharashtra in India started the crushing season. Datagro predicts that Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production will be about 41.42 million tons, a 3.1% increase from the previous season. In September 2025, China's refined sugar production was 539,000 tons, a 35.4% year - on - year increase [23]. - Pulp Market: Chinese traders counter - offered imported NBSK at $650/ton, but sellers refused. Canadian and Nordic NBSK prices remained at $680 - 700/ton. A major Brazilian supplier will raise the price of South American bleached hardwood pulp to Asian markets by $20/ton [26]. - Double - offset Paper Market: In different markets such as Shandong, Guangdong, Beijing, and Tianjin, the mainstream transaction prices of double - offset paper were stable. Supply was relatively loose, and demand showed no sign of improvement [27]. - Cotton Market: By early October 2025, Australia's cotton processing was about 95% complete, and the inspection progress was about 90%. In September 2025, China's cotton yarn exports were 19,400 tons, a 32.5% year - on - year increase and a 0.8% month - on - month increase. China will hold economic and trade consultations with the US in Malaysia from October 24th to 27th [30]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - Futures Market Review: Apple 2601 closed at 8830, up 36 (0.41%); Red Dates 2601 closed at 11165, down 100 (- 0.89%); Sugar 2601 closed at 5457, up 31 (0.57%); Pulp 2511 closed at 4862, up 8 (0.16%); Cotton 2601 closed at 13575, up 40 (0.30%) [31]. - Spot Market Review: The spot prices of various commodities showed different changes. For example, the apple price was 3.75 yuan/jin, the red date price was 9.40 yuan/kg, and the sugar price was 5750 yuan/ton [37]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific summarized content, only relevant charts are mentioned. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - Apple's 1 - 5 spread is - 513, with a month - on - month decrease of 54 and a year - on - year decrease of 123, predicted to decline in a volatile manner, and short - selling at high prices is recommended. - Red dates' 9 - 1 spread is 50, with a month - on - month increase of 125 and a year - on - year decrease of 350, predicted to fluctuate in a range, and it is recommended to wait and see. - Sugar's 1 - 5 spread is 49, with a month - on - month increase of 6 and a year - on - year increase of 28, predicted to fluctuate in a range, and it is recommended to wait and see. - Cotton's 1 - 5 spread is - 25, with a month - on - month increase of 15 and a year - on - year increase of 60, predicted to fluctuate in a range, and short - selling at high prices is recommended [56]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific summarized content, only relevant charts about the top 20 long and short positions, trading volume, and net long/short changes of each commodity are mentioned. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - Apple has 0 warehouse receipts, with no month - on - month or year - on - year changes. - Red dates have 0 warehouse receipts, with no month - on - month or year - on - year changes. - Sugar has 8196 warehouse receipts, a month - on - month decrease of 117 and a year - on - year decrease of 1460. - Pulp has 226002 warehouse receipts, a month - on - month decrease of 267 and a year - on - year decrease of 164284. - Cotton has 2526 warehouse receipts, a month - on - month decrease of 39 and a year - on - year decrease of 1089 [81]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Options - related Data No specific summarized content, only relevant charts about option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratios, and historical volatility of apples, sugar, and cotton are mentioned.