聚酯数据日报-20251024

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2) Core Viewpoints - PTA: The game intensifies, with sentiment and fundamentals resonating. The PTA supply side is shrinking, and its processing fee remains low. Industry profits are still constrained by over - capacity due to new device launches. Although the polyester downstream load remains above 90%, there are concerns about subsequent textile and clothing demand after the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The PTA operating rate may decline further, and it's difficult for PTA to have an independent market due to crude oil price trends [2]. - Ethylene glycol: The inventory of ethylene glycol ports in East China is still at a low level, with limited port arrivals this week and expected decline in overseas imports. Domestic device launches are pressuring the price. Coal - based ethylene glycol devices are resuming. The overall polyester inventory is in good condition, and the downstream weaving load is maintained. However, as the polyester peak season is ending and the crude oil fundamentals are weakening, the polyester is expected to run weakly [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - Crude oil and PTA - related: INE crude rose from 447.2 yuan/barrel on October 22, 2025, to 459.7 yuan/barrel on October 23, 2025. The PTA - SC spread decreased from 1232.2 yuan/ton to 1167.3 yuan/ton, and the PTA/SC ratio dropped from 1.3791 to 1.3494. The PTA main contract futures price increased from 4482 yuan/ton to 4508 yuan/ton, and the PTA spot price rose from 4370 yuan/ton to 4425 yuan/ton [2]. - PX: CFR China PX increased from 798 to 811, and the PX - naphtha spread rose from 258 to 260 [2]. - MEG: The MEG main contract futures price increased from 4051 yuan/ton to 4095 yuan/ton. The MEG - naphtha spread increased from - 110.72 yuan/ton to - 104.91 yuan/ton, and the MEG domestic price rose from 4107 to 4173 [2]. Industry Chain Operating Conditions - The PX operating rate remained at 84.62%, the PTA operating rate was stable at 76.95%, the MEG operating rate decreased from 63.35% to 61.89%, and the polyester load remained at 89.38% [2]. Product Sales and Cash Flow - Polyester filament: POY150D/48F decreased from 6380 to 6360, and its cash flow dropped from 18 to - 71. FDY150D/96F increased from 6590 to 6620, and its cash flow decreased from - 272 to - 311. DTY150D/48F decreased from 7740 to 7735, and its cash flow dropped from 178 to 104. The filament sales rate increased from 53% to 101% [2]. - Polyester staple fiber: 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber increased from 6365 to 6390, and its cash flow decreased from 353 to 309. The staple fiber sales rate decreased from 107% to 68% [2]. - Polyester chips: The semi - bright chip price increased from 5485 to 5525, and its cash flow decreased from 23 to - 6. The chip sales rate decreased from 141% to 54% [2]. Device Maintenance An East - China 2.2 - million - ton PTA device slightly reduced its load, and the recovery time is to be tracked [2].