四中全会公报点评：“十五五”规划公报，关注什么？

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The "15th Five - Year Plan" emphasizes high - quality economic development, with potential continuation of the "14th Five - Year Plan" approach of downplaying specific GDP growth targets. Mid - to long - term, there may be an implicit economic growth target to reach the level of moderately developed countries by 2035 [3][11]. - The priority of "industry" in the "15th Five - Year Plan" has increased, with a shift in industrial development goals and a change in the order of goals, highlighting the precedence of the "industrial ecosystem" [4][14]. - Technological innovation and new - quality productivity remain the main lines of development, with a more proactive stance on technological self - reliance and focus on breaking through "bottleneck" areas [5][17]. - The strategy of expanding domestic demand has been upgraded from "investment - driven" to "emphasizing both people and things", aiming to boost residents' consumption ability and income expectations [6][20]. - Deep - level reforms have entered a new stage of systematic integration, with a focus on stimulating the vitality of various business entities and improving the macro - economic governance system [22]. 3. Summary by Directory "15th Five - Year Plan" Bulletin Emphasizes Economic High - Quality Development - The main goals of the "15th Five - Year Plan" involve multiple aspects such as high - quality development, technological self - reliance, reform, people's livelihood, and national security. Economic development goals may continue the "14th Five - Year Plan" orientation, de - emphasizing specific GDP growth targets [3][11]. - To reach a per - capita GDP of about $25,000 in 2035 from $13,400 in 2024, the nominal GDP growth rate needs to reach 6.3%. Considering a price increase of 1.3% - 1.5% per year, the average GDP growth should be 4.8% - 5.0% [3][12]. "Industry" in the "15th Five - Year Plan" Bulletin's Priority Increase - The "15th Five - Year Plan" Bulletin emphasizes building a modern industrial system, with industrial development goals shifting from "upgrading industrial bases and modernizing industrial chains" to "intelligent, green, and integrated directions". It also adds new expressions about building a modern industrial system with advanced manufacturing as the backbone [4][14]. - The order of goals in the bulletin has changed, with the industrial system taking the first place, indicating a strategic shift from "technology - driven industrial upgrading" to "system - based industrial construction leading technological breakthroughs" [4][15]. Technological Innovation and New - Quality Productivity Remain the Development Main Line - The word "technology" appears 10 times in the bulletin, highlighting the value of technological innovation and the need to lead the development of new - quality productivity [5][17]. - Compared with the "14th Five - Year Plan", the "15th Five - Year Plan" has a more proactive stance on technological self - reliance, aiming to seize the high - ground in technological development and focus on breaking through "bottleneck" areas [5][17]. Expansion of Domestic Demand from "Investment - Driven" to "Emphasizing Both People and Things" - The new statement of "combining people - oriented and thing - oriented investment" in the bulletin is a major upgrade of the domestic demand strategy, aiming to enhance residents' consumption ability and income expectations [6][20]. - Future policies may focus on improving the social security system, promoting high - quality full employment, and perfecting the income distribution system to boost consumption. Specific work includes promoting consumption through various means and making targeted and efficient investments [20]. Deep - Level Reforms Enter a New Stage of Systematic Integration - The "15th Five - Year Plan" aims to build a high - level socialist market economic system, enhance the driving force for high - quality development, and improve the macro - economic governance system [22]. - Given the complex reform environment and overlapping reform tasks with the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, future reforms will focus more on systematicness and synergy, including stimulating the vitality of business entities and improving macro - economic governance efficiency [22]. Potential Industry Trends and High - Quality Tracks - The bulletin provides clues for market exploration of industry trends and high - quality tracks, including high - end and intelligent manufacturing in the modern industrial system, artificial intelligence, low - altitude economy, semiconductors, and new materials in emerging and future industries, photovoltaic and wind power in green transformation, and cloud computing and computing power infrastructure in digital China construction [6][23].