宏观金融数据日报-20251024

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The LPR quotes remained stable in October 2025. With the gradual alleviation of adverse factors from trade frictions, stock index futures are expected to return to an upward trend. Even if short - term macro uncertainties increase, the adjustment space of the stock index is expected to be limited due to policy support and abundant macro - liquidity. The strategy is to choose the right time to go long on the stock index [4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data of Interest Rates and Bonds - The closing price of DROO1 was 1.32, up 0.08bp; DR007 was 1.43, down 0.60bp; GC001 was 1.45, down 4.00bp; GC007 was 1.51, up 1.50bp; SHBOR 3M was 1.59, up 0.20bp; LPR 5 - year was 3.50, unchanged; 1 - year treasury bond was 1.48, down 0.25bp; 5 - year treasury bond was 1.59, up 0.50bp; 10 - year treasury bond was 1.84, up 0.95bp; 10 - year US treasury bond was 3.98, up 2.70bp [3]. - The central bank conducted 212.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40% yesterday. 236 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 23.5 billion yuan. This week, 789.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, with 253.8 billion, 91 billion, 43.5 billion, 236 billion, and 164.8 billion yuan maturing from Monday to Friday respectively [3][4]. Stock Index Futures and Spot Market - The closing price of CSI 300 was 4606, up 0.3%; IF current - month contract was 4594, up 0.4%; SSE 50 was 3027, up 0.56%; IH current - month contract was 3025, up 0.7%; CSI 500 was 7143, up 0.2%; IC current - month contract was 7091, up 0.4%; CSI 1000 was 7308, down 0.06%; IM current - month contract was 7249, up 0.2% [5]. - The trading volume and open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM all increased. The trading volume of IF was 128,274, up 32.3%; open interest was 264,665, up 6.2%. The trading volume of IH was 60,316, up 28.1%; open interest was 94,029, up 6.3%. The trading volume of IC was 145,145, up 32.9%; open interest was 254,337, up 7.6%. The trading volume of IM was 260,447, up 42.8%; open interest was 375,481, up 99% [5]. - The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1.6439 trillion yuan, a slight decrease of 23.9 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors rose, with coal, energy metals, culture and media, shipping ports, chemical fiber, and diversified finance sectors leading the gains, while construction machinery, mining, non - metallic materials, and biological products sectors leading the losses [5]. Stock Index Futures Basis Situation - The basis rates of IF current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 3.48%, 3.55%, 2.81%, and 2.97% respectively. The basis rates of IH current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 0.96%, 0.66%, 0.17%, and 0.33% respectively. The basis rates of IC current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 9.08%, 9.23%, 9.20%, and 9.47% respectively. The basis rates of IM current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 10.21%, 11.31%, 11.51%, and 11.70% respectively [7].