铁矿石：基本面持续压制（2025年10月24日）

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report The fundamentals of iron ore continue to exert downward pressure. The supply remains high, and the demand is weakening. The iron ore market is expected to continue to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [3][5][6]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Supply Situation - After the National Day holiday, the iron ore futures and spot prices declined. The main contract dropped from 809.5 yuan/ton to 760 yuan/ton, a cumulative decline of 6.11%. The spot price also decreased, with the Platts price index falling 4.30% to $104.5/ton, and the mainstream spot price at Qingdao Port dropping by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [2]. - The high - level decline of ore prices is due to factors such as weakened market sentiment, reduced demand from steel mills, and a weakened supply - demand pattern. Currently, the supply - demand pattern of iron ore is still weakening, mainly pressured by the supply side [3]. - Overseas ore supply is active. As of the week of October 19, the arrival volume at 47 domestic ports was 26.763 million tons, still at a high level this year. The arrival volume in the third quarter increased significantly compared with the same period last year, making up for the reduction in the first quarter [3]. - The increase in domestic port arrivals is due to the active shipments of miners. The latest global iron ore shipment volume is 33.335 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 15.45%. The shipment volume in October was 88.8319 million tons, with month - on - month and year - on - year increases of 2.06% and 10.34% respectively. The cumulative annual shipment volume increased by 14.34 million tons, with significant increases in Australia and Brazil [3]. - In October, the average value of the Platts iron ore price index (CFR, 62% FE) was $105/ton. High ore prices encourage overseas miners to ship actively. With a high inventory of floating cargoes at sea, the subsequent arrival volume at domestic ports will remain high. Domestic mine supply has also increased, which will further suppress the iron ore price [4]. Demand Situation - Iron ore demand has weakened. The poor performance of steel demand during the peak season has led to steel mills reducing production, and the consumption of iron ore has declined. As of the week of October 17, the daily average pig iron output and imported ore consumption of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.59 million tons and 1.79 million tons respectively [5]. - Although the decline in iron ore demand is not large, the steel market's supply - demand pattern remains weak. After the holiday, steel demand has recovered slightly, but most varieties have not returned to pre - holiday levels, and some varieties have the lowest demand in the same period in the past five years [5]. - The downstream industries of steel have not improved, and the "Silver October" peak season may be lackluster. The steel inventory increased significantly during the holiday, and the subsequent de - stocking pressure is large. The profitability of steel mills is deteriorating, with the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills at 55.41%, having decreased for 10 consecutive weeks, a cumulative decline of 12.99 percentage points. Most steel products in North China are in a loss - making state, and only those in East China maintain a small profit. Therefore, the subsequent production enthusiasm of steel mills will decline, and iron ore demand is expected to continue to weaken [5][6].