蛋白数据日报-20251024

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific report industry investment rating is provided in the content. Group 2: Core View of the Report - From October 24th to 27th, it is expected that China and the US will meet in Malaysia. Due to risk - aversion needs and poor domestic ship - buying and crushing margins, short - sellers significantly reduced their positions today, leading to a rebound in the futures market. The M01 contract is expected to remain volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see or take short - long positions [9]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Basis and Spread Data - On October 23rd, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Dalian was 62, with a decrease of 33; in Tianjin and Rizhao, the 43% soybean meal spot basis (against the main contract) was 42, with a decrease of 33; in Zhangjiagang, it was 2, with a decrease of 13; in Dongguan, it was - 18, with a decrease of 33; in Zhanjiang, it was 22, with a decrease of 33; in Fangcheng, it was 12, with a decrease of 43. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 58, with a decrease of 26 [6]. - The M1 - 5 spread was 168, with an increase of 26; the RM1 - 5 spread was 1500, with an increase of 27; the spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 300, and the futures spread of the main contract was 599, with an increase of 21 [6][7]. 2. International and Domestic Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.0837, with a decrease of 20; the Brazilian soybean crushing margin was 265 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 213 [7]. - As of October 14th, the Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 11.1%, higher than 9.1% of the same period last year but lower than the five - year average of 16.9% [9]. 3. Supply and Demand and Inventory Data - Supply: Affected by less rainfall in US soybean - producing areas after August, the USDA's estimated yield per acre of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season (53.5 bushels/acre) may still be revised down. Due to the US government shutdown, the USDA crop growth report was delayed. Brazilian soybean planting has started, and the early - sowing work is going smoothly. In October, domestic soybean arrivals are expected to increase, and the domestic soybean supply in the fourth quarter is expected to be loose. If China cannot purchase US soybeans, the soybean meal supply in the first quarter of next year needs to be supplemented, and the source of supplementation is uncertain [8][9]. - Demand: Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory in the short term, supporting feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect long - term supply. The cost - performance of soybean meal is high, and the feed addition ratio is high. The downstream trading volume seems light, but the pick - up is good [9]. - Inventory: Domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level; oil mill soybean meal inventory has decreased, and the number of days of feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory has decreased [9].