Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the steel industry is weak and stable, with both supply and demand increasing, and the inventory level is similar to that in 2023 and higher than that of last year, suppressing the upward price elasticity. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see or oscillatory approach for steel, and look for opportunities to go long on the coil - rebar spread when it is below 150 for the 01 contract. [3] - The valuation of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is low, and the cost is supported. It is recommended to go long on ferrosilicon on dips. [3] - The expectation of the second round of coke price increase is strengthening, and the coking coal futures have risen significantly. However, it is not recommended to chase the rise, and industrial customers can consider selling hedging for some spot when the market rallies. [3] - Iron ore is relatively weak, with marginal weakening in supply - demand. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On October 23, for far - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3128 yuan/ton with a gain of 17 yuan (0.55%); HC2605 at 3271 yuan/ton with a gain of 20 yuan (0.62%); I2605 at 756 yuan/ton with a gain of 2.5 yuan (0.33%); J2605 at 1896 yuan/ton with a gain of 55.5 yuan (3.02%); JM2605 at 1325 yuan/ton with a gain of 53 yuan (4.17%). [1] - For near - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3071 yuan/ton with a gain of 13 yuan (0.43%); HC2601 at 3256 yuan/ton with a gain of 21 yuan (0.65%); I2601 at 777 yuan/ton with a gain of 3 yuan (0.39%); J2601 at 1768 yuan/ton with a gain of 71.5 yuan (4.21%); JM2601 at 1258.5 yuan/ton with a gain of 61.5 yuan (5.14%). [1] - The cross - month spreads on October 23: RB2601 - 2605 was - 57 yuan/ton with a change of - 13 yuan; HC2601 - 2605 was - 15 yuan/ton with a change of - 5 yuan; I2601 - 2605 was 21 yuan/ton with a change of - 3 yuan; J2601 - 2605 was - 128 yuan/ton with a change of 0 yuan; JM2601 - 2605 was - 66.5 yuan/ton with a change of 8.5 yuan. [1] - The spread/ratio/profit on October 23: the coil - rebar spread was 185 yuan/ton with a gain of 6 yuan; the rebar - ore ratio was 3.95 with a change of - 0.01; the coal - coke ratio was 1.40 with a change of - 0.01; the rebar disk profit was - 152.8 yuan/ton with a change of - 31.2 yuan; the coking disk profit was 94.2 yuan/ton with a change of - 6.67 yuan. [1] Spot Market - On October 23, the spot prices: Shanghai rebar was 3230 yuan/ton with a gain of 12 yuan; Tianjin rebar was 3130 yuan/ton with a gain of 40 yuan; Guangzhou rebar was 3300 yuan/ton with a gain of 20 yuan; Tangshan billet was 2950 yuan/ton with a gain of 10 yuan; the Platts Index was 105.65 with a gain of 0.55. [1] - Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3310 yuan/ton with a gain of 10 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3350 yuan/ton with a gain of 10 yuan; Guangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3290 yuan/ton with a gain of 20 yuan; the billet - product spread was 280 yuan/ton with a change of - 10 yuan; Rizhao Port PB was 783 yuan/ton with a gain of 2 yuan. [1] - The spot prices of other products: Qingdao Super Special Powder was 708 yuan/ton with no change; Ganqimao Du Coking Coal was 1310 yuan/ton with no change; Qingdao Port Quasi - first - grade Coke was 1480 yuan/ton with no change; Qingdao Port PB was 782 yuan/ton with a gain of 1 yuan. [1] - The basis on October 23: HC main contract was 54 yuan/ton with a gain of 1 yuan; RB main contract was 159 yuan/ton with a change of - 3 yuan; I main contract was 38 yuan/ton with no change; J main contract was - 141.6 yuan/ton with a change of - 58.5 yuan; JM main contract was 81.5 yuan/ton with a change of - 49 yuan. [1] Industry Analysis - Steel: The weekly industrial data continued to improve, with social inventory reduction, overall supply and demand increasing, and the industry in a weak and stable state. The improvement of hot - rolled coils was more obvious, while building materials were relatively neutral. The market participants were cautious, and the demand lacked explosive power, suppressing price elasticity. The cost side was structurally differentiated. It was recommended to wait and see or use an oscillatory approach, and observe the opportunity to go long on the coil - rebar spread for the 01 contract when it was below 150. [3] - Silicon Ferroalloy: The valuation was low, and the cost was supported. The production profit was poor, and the supply was difficult to increase. The demand from hot metal was strong, and the inventory pressure was not large. It was recommended to go long on ferrosilicon on dips. [3] - Coking Coal and Coke: The expectation of the second - round coke price increase was strengthening. The coking coal spot prices were rising, and the futures prices had a large increase. However, it was not recommended to chase the rise, and industrial customers could consider selling hedging for some spot when the market rallied. [3] - Iron Ore: The commodity market was generally strong, but iron ore was relatively weak due to the marginal weakening of supply - demand. It was recommended to wait and see in the short term. [3]
黑色数据日报-20251024
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-10-24 03:40