Xiangcai Securities·2025-10-24 05:13Group 1: Machinery Industry - In September 2025, the total sales of excavators in China increased by 25.4% year-on-year, with domestic sales and exports growing by 21.5% and 29.0% respectively. For the first nine months, total excavator sales rose by 18.1% year-on-year, with domestic sales and exports increasing by 21.5% and 14.6% respectively [2] - In September 2025, the total sales of loaders in China increased by 30.5% year-on-year, with domestic sales and exports growing by 25.6% and 35.3% respectively. For the first nine months, total loader sales rose by 14.6% year-on-year, with domestic sales and exports increasing by 20.7% and 8.3% respectively [2] - The growth in sales for earth-moving machinery is attributed to increased sales efforts by manufacturers, accelerated exports of second-hand equipment, and a low base from the previous year. Future growth in domestic sales is expected to continue due to ongoing demand for equipment updates and contributions from new projects [2] - The overseas market is anticipated to maintain growth driven by demand from emerging markets in Africa and mineral-rich countries like Indonesia and Australia, alongside domestic manufacturers accelerating their international expansion [2] Group 2: Lithium Battery Equipment - In September 2025, the production of power batteries in China increased by 35.4% year-on-year, with a total installed capacity of 76.0 GWh, reflecting a 39.5% year-on-year growth. For the first nine months, the cumulative installed capacity reached 493.9 GWh, up 42.5% year-on-year, while total production grew by 51.4% to 1121.9 GWh [3] - The growth in power battery production is driven by the rapid increase in new energy vehicle sales, which reached approximately 1.604 million units in September 2025, a year-on-year increase of 24.6% [3] - Future growth in the new energy vehicle market is expected to continue, supported by policy incentives and technological advancements, which will also drive demand for lithium battery equipment [3] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The manufacturing PMI in China rose by 0.4 percentage points to 49.8% in September 2025, indicating improvements in production, new orders, and new export orders, suggesting a recovery in both supply and demand in the manufacturing sector [4] - The report maintains a "buy" rating for the machinery industry, particularly recommending the engineering machinery sector, which is expected to see sustained growth in performance due to the resonance of domestic and international demand [5] - The lithium battery equipment sector is also highlighted for its potential growth driven by rapid end-user demand and technological advancements leading to equipment upgrades [5]