沪铅大涨分析

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The sharp rise in Shanghai lead prices is mainly driven by overseas funds, but there is a large expectation that the domestic fundamentals will gradually weaken, and overseas lead supply is not scarce. The upward trend of lead prices lacks sustainable driving force. In the short - term, lead may remain relatively strong, but the risk at high levels is increasing, and it is not advisable to chase the rise [2][4][5] 3. Summary by Related Content Overseas Market - The cancellation ratio of LME lead inventory warrants has exceeded 60%, and the risk of overseas warrants is relatively large. Although the LME lead inventory has decreased recently, it is still at a high level in recent years, and the overall supply - demand of lead is relatively loose, so the driving force at the spot warrant level is difficult to last [2] Domestic Market - Supply Side: Pre - maintenance primary lead enterprises are gradually resuming production, and the supply has increased month - on - month. The supply pressure of recycled lead is also expected to increase in the medium term. Since mid - October, the cost of waste batteries has decreased, the profit of recycled lead enterprises has been continuously repaired, and the willingness to resume production has increased. Although short - term environmental protection control has affected the transportation of recycled lead and adjusted the resumption plan of some refineries, the medium - term supply recovery momentum still exists [4] - Demand Side: The demand in the peak consumption season is lower than expected, and the medium - term supply - demand situation is expected to weaken [4] - Inventory: As of October 20, domestic lead inventory has continued to decline to 32,800 tons, at an absolute low in recent years, indicating that the supply side has not weakened yet. The vehicle control in Hebei has affected the transportation of waste batteries and lead ingots, and short - term environmental protection control has supported lead prices [4]