航运衍生品数据日报-20251024

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Report Core View - The shipping derivatives market shows mixed trends with some indices rising and others falling. The EC contracts are mostly in a state of slight fluctuations, and the shipping market is affected by various factors such as the situation in the Red Sea and international trade policies [3][4]. - The EC market is in a state of shock. The spot price has changed from late - October to early - November. The European line is in the year - end price - holding stage, and the first round of price - holding in late October has initially achieved results, and it has entered the second round in early November. Future price - holding actions are expected [5]. - The recommended strategy is to wait and see as the short - term peak - season price increase cannot be disproven and the market is in a relatively strong shock state [6]. 3. Summary by Related Content Shipping Derivatives Data - Freight Index: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) has a current value of 1310, up 12.92% from the previous value. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is at 973, down 4.11%. Different routes show different trends, with SCFI - US West up 31.88%, SCFIS - US West down 1.60%, SCFI - US East up 16.35%, SCFI - Northwest Europe up 7.21%, SCFIS - Northwest Europe down 1.43%, and SCFI - Mediterranean up 3.53% [4]. - EC Contracts: For EC contracts, most show slight fluctuations. For example, EC2506 has a current value of 1374.8, up 1.59%; EC2608 is at 1478.9, up 0.28%; EC2510 is 1136.1, down 0.04% [4]. - Positions: The positions of EC contracts also have changes. For example, EC2606 position has a current value of 1402, an increase of 3; EC2608 position is 1212, an increase of 28; while some positions have decreased, such as EC2410 with a decrease of 765 [4]. - Monthly Spread: The monthly spreads of 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4 are - 657.0, 211.1, and 621.3 respectively, with corresponding changes of - 5.3, 5.7, and 4.4 [4]. Market News - Shipping companies are delaying their return to the Red Sea route. Even though there is a cease - fire agreement between Israel and Hamas, it is unlikely to quickly resume the Suez Canal route in the short term due to factors like complex route network adjustment, repeated security risks in the Red Sea, and potential port congestion [4]. - Egypt claims to have lost over $9 billion due to Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping [4]. - The US may soon announce a long list of tariff exemptions, and intense lobbying is expected as the power to adjust tariff scope has shifted to the USTR and the Commerce Department [4]. - The US Treasury Secretary plans to meet with China's Vice - Premier He Lifeng in Malaysia next week to prevent the further escalation of Sino - US tariffs [4]. - A White House envoy will go to the Middle East to promote the implementation of the Gaza agreement [4]. - Chinese Minister Wang Wentao had a video meeting with the EU Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security, and they agreed to hold an "upgraded" China - EU export control dialogue mechanism meeting in Brussels as soon as possible [4]. EC Market - Market Condition: The EC market is in a state of shock. The spot prices of shipping companies have changed from late October to early November. For example, in late October, Maersk quoted 1800 - 1900, while in early November, HPL quoted 2500 [5]. - Logic: The current sanctions have little impact on the European line. The European line is in the year - end price - holding stage. The first round of price - holding in late October has initially stopped the decline, and the second round in early November is underway. Future price - holding actions are expected. However, factors such as Sino - US relations, end - of - month loading, and November's empty sailings need to be monitored [5]. - Strategy: The recommended strategy is to wait and see as the short - term peak - season price increase cannot be disproven and the market is in a relatively strong shock state [6].