HTSC·2025-10-24 05:24Core Insights - The insurance capital's dividend strategy has accelerated, with an increase in allocation to dividend stocks exceeding 320 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, surpassing the total allocation for the previous year [1][4] - The insurance capital is increasingly reliant on dividend stocks to maintain cash investment returns due to declining cash yields, but rising valuations and decreasing dividend yields pose challenges to this strategy [2][13] - The estimated under-allocation of dividend stocks in the insurance sector is between 0.8 to 1.6 trillion RMB, which may be completed in the next two to three years [4][41] Group 1: Dividend Strategy Transition - The insurance capital's dividend strategy is transitioning from a "buy and hold" phase to a more selective "picking the best" phase, focusing on balancing stable cash returns and minimizing capital loss risks [2][13] - The focus on dividend stocks is driven by the need to maintain cash yields amidst high fixed liability costs, with the average net investment yield for listed insurance companies dropping to 3.0% in the first half of 2025, nearing the fixed liability cost of around 3% [14][33] - The selection criteria for dividend stocks have narrowed, with three main standards: stable dividends per share (DPS), low capital loss probability, and meeting a certain dividend yield threshold [3][15] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Stock Selection - The potential pool of dividend stocks has significantly decreased, particularly in the Hong Kong market, where the free float market capitalization of potential dividend stocks dropped from 3.4 trillion HKD to 1.6 trillion HKD [3][17] - In contrast, the number of potential dividend stocks in the A-share market remains stable at 57, with a total free float market capitalization of 3.8 trillion RMB [17] - The insurance capital's focus on bank stocks as a key component of its dividend strategy has led to a notable increase in stock prices and valuations since early 2024, although the correlation between DPS stability and stock price movements is not strong [5][16] Group 3: Future Outlook and Recommendations - The insurance sector is expected to continue increasing its allocation to high-yield stocks, with an estimated annual increase of 300 to 500 billion RMB in the next few years to address the cash yield gap [4][41] - The report recommends focusing on resilient balance sheets and balanced growth companies such as Ping An Insurance, China Pacific Insurance, China Life Insurance, and China Reinsurance [1][9] - The overall investment ratio in dividend stocks for the insurance industry is projected to be suitable at over 5%, indicating a need for further allocation to meet this target [41][43]