NOVEL(SZ:002014) SINOLINK SECURITIES·2025-10-24 05:21Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][12]. Core Views - The company reported steady revenue growth, with Q1-Q3 2025 revenue increasing by 6.56% year-on-year to 2.706 billion RMB, and net profit rising by 1.43% to 309 million RMB [2]. - The company's plastic flexible packaging film business is expected to be the main contributor to revenue growth, aligning with the trend towards environmentally friendly packaging materials [2][4]. - The gross margin slightly increased in Q3 2025, driven by resilient downstream demand and a decrease in crude oil prices [3]. - The company has a strong dividend payout history, maintaining a payout ratio above 80%, and is expected to continue high dividends due to stable performance from ongoing projects [4]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - For Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 960 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 8.02%, and a net profit of 126 million RMB, up 1.00% [2]. - The company’s revenue and net profit for Q1-Q3 2025 were 2.706 billion RMB and 309 million RMB, reflecting growth rates of 6.56% and 1.43% respectively [2]. Operational Analysis - The company’s main business, color printing composite packaging materials, is expected to maintain stable growth, supported by resilient demand in downstream sectors [2]. - The company is actively developing environmentally friendly packaging materials, which is anticipated to contribute significantly to revenue growth in Q3 2025 [2][4]. Financial Metrics - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2025 was 22.33%, with a slight increase to 24.44% in Q3 2025, while the net profit margin was 11.50% [3]. - The company’s projected revenue for 2025-2027 is 3.784 billion RMB, 4.208 billion RMB, and 4.647 billion RMB, with respective growth rates of 7.33%, 11.19%, and 10.44% [5][10]. Future Outlook - The company is set to launch new production capacities in 2026, which will provide additional revenue streams [4]. - The company is also exploring new consumer segments, such as pet food, which is expected to enhance growth opportunities [4].