工业硅、多晶硅日评：区间整理-20251024

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply side still has a certain increase, while the improvement on the demand side is limited. It maintains an oversupply pattern, which may suppress the upper limit of the futures market. It is recommended to focus on the support level of 8,300 - 8,500 yuan/ton and conduct interval operations [1]. - For polysilicon, recent supply - side news has pushed up the futures market. However, considering the high raw material inventory of downstream enterprises, it is difficult to have centralized restocking in the short term, and there is great pressure for the spot price to continue rising, which may limit the upward space of the futures market. Before the implementation of supply - side reform policies, it is advisable to lightly go long on dips [1]. Summary According to Related Content Industrial Silicon - Price Information: On October 24, 2025, the average price of non - oxygen - blown 553 (East China) remained unchanged at 9,300 yuan/ton, the average price of 421 (East China) remained unchanged at 9,650 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the futures main contract rose 2.59% to 8,705 yuan/ton [1]. - Supply and Demand: In October, the southwest production area is entering the high - cost dry season, with some silicon enterprises planning to reduce or stop production at the end of this month or next month, while the start - up of northern silicon enterprises has increased. After offsetting, the total start - up has increased. On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises are still reducing production, but there may still be an increase in output in October. Organic silicon enterprises maintain the pre - holiday start - up level, and silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed. The downstream's willingness to stock up at low levels is limited [1]. Polysilicon - Price Information: On October 24, 2025, the price of N - type dense material remained unchanged at 51.50 yuan/kg, the price of N - type re - feed material fell 0.04% to 52.98 yuan/kg, the price of N - type mixed material remained unchanged at 50.50 yuan/kg, the price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 50.5 yuan/kg, and the closing price of the futures main contract rose 0.89% to 50,760 yuan/ton [1]. - Supply and Demand: Silicon material enterprises are maintaining the production reduction trend, but some silicon material factories may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting, the output is expected to increase slightly in October. During the National Day holiday, market transactions were light, with few new transactions. Downstream enterprises are resistant to high - priced resources, and the market is waiting for the industry meeting in October [1]. Industry News - On October 22, the first 11.8MW phase of the 88MW agricultural - photovoltaic complementary power generation project in Tonglu Baijiang, Zhejiang, achieved grid connection, with an expected annual power generation of 15.3 million kWh, saving 0.43 million tons of standard coal and reducing 12,000 tons of carbon dioxide emissions annually [1]. - Spanish energy company Grenergy has started the construction of the Monte Águila photovoltaic - energy storage hybrid power station in Chile, with a total investment of $264 million. It is scheduled to be put into operation in early 2027, with a planned installed capacity of 340MW of photovoltaics and a 960MWh energy storage system [1].