洽洽食品（002557）：Q3经营短期承压，期待成本下降、营收改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline of 5.9% and a net profit drop of 72.6% in Q3 2025, attributed to pressure on traditional product demand and increased costs from high-priced raw materials and new product promotion expenses [1][6] - Looking ahead to Q4 and next year, there is an expectation for improved sales of sunflower seeds and nuts, along with effective promotion of new products like potato chips and konjac, as well as a potential decrease in sunflower seed prices, which could enhance profitability [1][6] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are estimated at 0.69, 1.22, and 1.35 yuan, respectively [1][6] Financial Data Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 6,806 million yuan, with a slight decline of 1% year-on-year, and expected to increase by 5% in 2024 [2][12] - Operating profit is forecasted to be 896 million yuan in 2023, decreasing by 20% year-on-year, with a significant drop of 62% expected in 2025 [2][12] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is anticipated to be 803 million yuan in 2023, down 18% year-on-year, with a further decline of 59% expected in 2025 [2][12] - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to be 31.3 in 2025, indicating a higher valuation compared to previous years [2][12] Key Financial Ratios - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was reported at 24.5%, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 8.6 percentage points due to high raw material costs [1][6] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 7.4% [3] - The asset-liability ratio stands at 39.3%, indicating a moderate level of financial leverage [3]