Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Lead Market: The lead market shows a situation of both supply and demand increasing. However, refinery operations are below expectations due to factors such as raw materials, leading to tight spot circulation and extremely low social inventories. The lead price has strongly rallied, breaking through the 17,300 yuan/ton resistance level. There is a need to be vigilant about the possibility of the lead price falling after a sharp rise [1]. - Zinc Market: The macro - sentiment has improved, and the domestic mine supply situation has tightened, making the domestic TC (Treatment and Refining Charges) more likely to fall than rise. The zinc price has received some support at the bottom and has rebounded in a volatile manner. Attention should be paid to overseas structural risks as the LME 0 - 3 back structure deepens with the continuous decline of LME zinc inventories [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead - Price and Market Indicators: On October 24, 2025, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 17,125 yuan/ton, up 0.74%; the closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai lead was 17,615 yuan/ton, up 2.65%. The trading volume of the active futures contract increased by 155.10% to 74,008 lots, while the open interest decreased by 12.28% to 23,288 lots. The LME inventory remained unchanged at 239,750 tons, and the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 4.98% to 23,734 tons [1]. - Supply and Demand: In terms of supply, there is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. Some refineries have maintenance plans, and the operation of primary lead has small fluctuations. For secondary lead, refineries that had previous maintenance have gradually resumed production, increasing supply. On the demand side, the terminal market has improved, and the operation of lead - acid battery enterprises is good, increasing demand [1]. - Industry News: According to the rules of the electric bicycle trade - in activity in Qingyuan City, Guangdong Province in 2025, individual consumers can get a one - time subsidy of 500 yuan when they trade in old electric bicycles (including batteries) for new ones priced at 1,500 yuan or more. Starting from October 29, 2025, subsidy qualification vouchers will be publicly distributed through the "Yuehuanxin" platform on the Cloud Flash Pay APP. On October 22, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of 39.73 dollars/ton, and the open interest decreased by 963 lots to 152,853 lots [1]. Zinc - Price and Market Indicators: On October 24, 2025, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 22,030 yuan/ton, up 0.92%; the closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai zinc was 22,345 yuan/ton, up 1.57%. The trading volume of the active futures contract increased by 60.71% to 164,360 lots, while the open interest decreased by 5.99% to 124,740 lots. The LME inventory remained unchanged at 34,700 tons, and the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory increased by 0.49% to 65,529 tons [1]. - Supply and Demand: In terms of supply, refineries have sufficient raw material inventories, and zinc ore processing fees have continued to rise. Refineries mainly purchase domestic ores, and the domestic TC in October may still decline. Refinery profits and production enthusiasm have improved, and the monthly output is expected to remain at around 600,000 tons. On the demand side, there is no significant improvement, but with the continuous deterioration of the Shanghai - London ratio, the zinc ingot export window is expected to open [1]. - Industry News: On October 22, Boliden announced its Q3 2025 results. The overall output of its lead - zinc concentrate increased quarter - on - quarter. However, the output of the Tara mine climbed slower than expected due to seasonal factors, lower - than - expected mine development progress, and an unplanned power outage. Boliden reduced its annual planned grinding volume from 1.8 million tons to 1.6 million tons. SMM expects the annual zinc concentrate output to be reduced by about 0.5 - 10,000 metric tons and the lead concentrate output to be reduced by about 2,000 metric tons. In the smelting segment, the refined zinc output of the Odda smelter decreased quarter - on - quarter, and SMM expects its actual output in 2025 to be about 170,000 - 180,000 tons. On October 22, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a premium of 338.74 dollars/ton, and the open interest decreased by 2,424 lots to 221,589 lots [1]. 4. Trading Strategies - Lead: Consider lightly shorting at high prices [1]. - Zinc: Temporarily adopt a wait - and - see approach [1].
铅锌日评：警惕冲高回落，沪锌关注海外结构性风险-20251024
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-10-24 06:05