Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Views of the Report - Domestic and international economic situations are complex. Domestically, the expectation of a缓和 in Sino-US trade relations has increased, but short - term expectations for negotiation results should not be too high. The GDP growth rate in Q3 slowed marginally, and the GDP deflator rebounded. Fiscal policy is clear in supporting the economy, and the key to economic recovery lies in the repair rhythm and strength of domestic demand. Overseas, the US government shutdown has led to a data vacuum, and the market's concerns about the economy have eased, but risks still exist. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October, but the actual impact may be limited [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is expected to remain basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level, with an operating range of 7.10 - 7.15 this week, despite external uncertainties [4]. - The release of the Fourth Plenary Session communique is expected to boost market confidence. The short - term sentiment of the technology industry and the long - term technology concept are expected to be positive. It is recommended to hold positions and wait and not chase high [8]. - For bonds, if the stock market continues to rebound, there may be further lows in the bond market. It is advisable to hold long positions at low levels and go long on dips [9]. - The container shipping index (European line) futures are expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short term, and a breakthrough requires the resonance of fundamentals and policies [14]. - Precious metals are in a short - term adjustment phase, and it is recommended to pay attention to mid - term opportunities to buy on dips and continue to hold bottom positions cautiously [16]. - The "15th Five - Year Plan" is expected to boost the copper industry, and it is recommended that speculators sell at high levels near the pressure level and buy on dips. Downstream enterprises can adopt a combined strategy, and enterprises with inventory can sell call options for hedging [18]. - Aluminum is expected to be in a high - level shock, alumina to be in a weak operation, and cast aluminum alloy to be in a high - level shock [20][21]. - Zinc is expected to be in a strong shock [21]. - Nickel and stainless steel are expected to be in a shock - up trend. The short - term follow - up of nickel may have a certain catch - up, and stainless steel may be in a wide - range shock [22][23]. - Tin is expected to be bullish in the short term, and it is recommended to buy low and sell high [24]. - The demand for lithium carbonate is good, and the futures price is expected to be supported in stages [25]. - Industrial silicon may see a slight increase in price as enterprises are expected to cut production in the dry season, but the price increase is limited by inventory. Polysilicon's fundamentals are still bearish [28]. - Lead is expected to be in a high - level shock in the short term, and it is recommended to sell options on both sides to earn premiums [29]. - Steel products are expected to be in a short - term shock - up and a long - term weak trend [30][31]. - Iron ore is expected to be bearish, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [34]. - Coking coal and coke are suitable for long - allocation in the black market. It is recommended to take profits when the price rebounds to the upper limit of the reference range [36]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are under pressure, and their prices will be under pressure if there is no unexpected stimulus policy [37]. - Crude oil may fall back if the geopolitical situation does not escalate, and the medium - and long - term market is still suppressed by fundamental negatives [40]. - LPG is expected to fluctuate with crude oil in the short term [42]. - PTA - PX is expected to follow the cost - end and the macro - emotion fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see on the long side and expand the processing fee on dips below 265 [46]. - PP's supply pressure is temporarily relieved, and its short - term fundamentals support narrowing the L - P spread [50]. - PE is in a situation of both supply and demand increasing, and its fundamental driving force is relatively limited [53]. - Pure benzene and styrene follow the rebound of crude oil. It is recommended to narrow the spread between pure benzene and styrene on rallies in the short term and wait and see on the long side [55]. - High - sulfur fuel oil is bearish, and low - sulfur fuel oil has limited upward driving force [56][57]. - Asphalt is recommended to wait and see in the short term or short after the price rises [58]. - Rubber is expected to be in a shock, and it is recommended to wait and see on the long side [59]. - Urea is expected to be in a weak trend in the medium term, and it is necessary to pay attention to new export quotas [61]. - Soda ash has a long - term supply pressure, and glass and caustic soda are in a low - level shock [62][63][65]. - Pulp and offset paper may continue to rise in the short term, but there are still restrictions above [66][67]. - Logs' far - month bullish expectations may be weakened, and it is recommended to adopt a covered call strategy for the 01 contract [68]. - Propylene is expected to rebound slightly with the cost - end and then maintain a shock pattern [69]. - For live pigs, it is recommended to short on rallies, paying attention to farmers' sentiment and de - capacity policies [72]. - Oilseeds' prices are affected by Sino - US and Sino - Canadian negotiations. It is recommended to hold the covered call option sold at 3300 for M2601 [74][75]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Financial Futures - Macro: Pay attention to US inflation data. Sino - US economic and trade consultations will be held in Malaysia from October 24th to 27th. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China passed the "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal [1]. - RMB Exchange Rate: The RMB exchange rate was basically stable during the important meeting, with a narrow - range operation of 7.10 - 7.15. It is expected to remain stable within this range this week, and attention should be paid to the release of the US CPI data on October 24th [3][4]. - Stock Index: The release of the Fourth Plenary Session communique is expected to boost market confidence. It is recommended to hold positions and wait and not chase high [6][8]. - Treasury Bonds: If the stock market continues to rebound, the bond market may have further lows. It is advisable to hold long positions at low levels and go long on dips [9]. - Container Shipping Index (European Line): The futures price has been rising for three consecutive days. There are both positive and negative factors in the short term, and it is expected to maintain a high - level shock [11][12][13][14]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - Gold and Silver: In the short term, precious metals are in an adjustment phase. It is recommended to pay attention to mid - term opportunities to buy on dips and continue to hold bottom positions cautiously [16]. - Copper: The "15th Five - Year Plan" is expected to boost the copper industry. Speculators can sell on rallies and buy on dips. Downstream enterprises can adopt a combined strategy, and enterprises with inventory can sell call options for hedging [16][18]. - Aluminum Industry Chain: Aluminum is expected to be in a high - level shock, alumina in a weak operation, and cast aluminum alloy in a high - level shock [18][20][21]. - Zinc: Zinc is expected to be in a strong shock [21]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Nickel and stainless steel are expected to be in a shock - up trend. Nickel may have a certain catch - up, and stainless steel may be in a wide - range shock [22][23]. - Tin: Tin is expected to be bullish in the short term, and it is recommended to buy low and sell high [24]. - Lithium Carbonate: The demand for lithium carbonate is good, and the futures price is expected to be supported in stages [25]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: Industrial silicon may see a slight price increase, and polysilicon's fundamentals are still bearish [28]. - Lead: Lead is expected to be in a high - level shock in the short term, and it is recommended to sell options on both sides to earn premiums [29]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Steel products are expected to be in a short - term shock - up and a long - term weak trend [30][31]. - Iron Ore: Iron ore is expected to be bearish, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [34]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Coking coal and coke are suitable for long - allocation in the black market. It is recommended to take profits when the price rebounds to the upper limit of the reference range [36]. - Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese: Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are under pressure, and their prices will be under pressure if there is no unexpected stimulus policy [37]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Crude oil may fall back if the geopolitical situation does not escalate, and the medium - and long - term market is still suppressed by fundamental negatives [40]. - LPG: LPG is expected to fluctuate with crude oil in the short term [42]. - PTA - PX: PTA - PX follows the cost - end and macro - emotion fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see on the long side and expand the processing fee on dips below 265 [46]. - PP: PP's supply pressure is temporarily relieved, and its short - term fundamentals support narrowing the L - P spread [50]. - PE: PE is in a situation of both supply and demand increasing, and its fundamental driving force is relatively limited [53]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene: Pure benzene and styrene follow the rebound of crude oil. It is recommended to narrow the spread between pure benzene and styrene on rallies in the short term and wait and see on the long side [55]. - Fuel Oil: High - sulfur fuel oil is bearish, and low - sulfur fuel oil has limited upward driving force [56][57]. - Asphalt: Asphalt is recommended to wait and see in the short term or short after the price rises [58]. - Rubber and 20 -号 Rubber: Rubber is expected to be in a shock, and it is recommended to wait and see on the long side [59]. - Urea: Urea is expected to be in a weak trend in the medium term, and it is necessary to pay attention to new export quotas [61]. - Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda: Soda ash has a long - term supply pressure, and glass and caustic soda are in a low - level shock [62][63][65]. - Pulp and Offset Paper: Pulp and offset paper may continue to rise in the short term, but there are still restrictions above [66][67]. - Logs: Logs' far - month bullish expectations may be weakened, and it is recommended to adopt a covered call strategy for the 01 contract [68]. - Propylene: Propylene is expected to rebound slightly with the cost - end and then maintain a shock pattern [69]. Agricultural Products - Live Pigs: It is recommended to short on rallies, paying attention to farmers' sentiment and de - capacity policies [72]. - Oilseeds: Oilseeds' prices are affected by Sino - US and Sino - Canadian negotiations. It is recommended to hold the covered call option sold at 3300 for M2601 [74][75].
金融期货早评-20251024
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-10-24 06:19