Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Low valuations and macro - sentiment boost prices, and the short - term may continue the rebound trend, but the supply - demand pressure has not been significantly alleviated. After the low - valuation situation is repaired, it can still be used as a short - position allocation within the sector [5] - Unilateral strategy: In the short term, it rebounds driven by low valuations and macro - sentiment. After the low - valuation repair, it can still be used as a short - position allocation within the sector; Arbitrage strategy: Wait and see; Option strategy: Sell out - of - the - money straddle combinations on rallies [6] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - Supply side: Silicon ferroalloy production has a slight rebound, while manganese ferroalloy production has a slight decline. Despite poor profits of alloy enterprises recently, production has not shown a trend of decline and the absolute production volume remains high [5] - Demand side: The molten iron production of 247 steel mills continues to decline with an increasing decline. The destocking situation in October is not ideal, leading to the deterioration of steel mill profits and a downward expectation for raw material demand [5] - Cost side: The spot price of thermal coal remains strong, the electricity price in ferroalloy production areas is generally stable, the spot price of manganese ore has a slight decline, but the inventory is still at a low level in the same period, and the cost side has some support [5] - Macro - aspect: The Fourth Plenary Session has concluded and the 14th Five - Year Plan Outline has been announced. There are still mentions of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, which brings expectations of capacity reduction or production control for the high - energy - consuming ferroalloy industry and boosts market sentiment [5] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: In the short term, it rebounds driven by low valuations and macro - sentiment. After the low - valuation repair, it can still be used as a short - position allocation within the sector [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Option: Sell out - of - the - money straddle combinations on rallies [6] Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - Not provided in the content Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking Supply and Demand Data Tracking - Demand: The daily average pig iron production of 247 sample steel mills is 239.9 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.05 tons. The weekly demand for silicon ferroalloy of five major steel types (the sample accounts for about 70% of the total demand for silicon ferroalloy of five major steel types) is 1.99 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.04 tons; The weekly demand for silicon manganese of five major steel types (70%) is 12.27 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.16 tons [11] - Supply: The operating rate of 136 independent silicon ferroalloy enterprises in the country is 35.56%, a week - on - week increase of 0.08%; The national silicon ferroalloy production (weekly supply) is 11.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.12 tons. The operating rate of 187 independent silicon manganese enterprises in the country is 43.04%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.24%; The national silicon manganese production (99% of weekly supply) is 20.74 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.14 tons [12] - Inventory: In the week of October 24, the national inventory of 60 independent silicon ferroalloy enterprises is 6.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.3 tons; The national inventory of 63 independent silicon manganese enterprises (accounting for 79.77% of the national production capacity) is 29.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3 tons [13] Other Data Tracking - Spot Price - Basis: It shows the market price of Inner Mongolia silicon manganese FeMn65Si17, the market price of Inner Mongolia silicon ferroalloy 72%FeSi, the basis of the main contract of Inner Mongolia silicon manganese, and the basis of the main contract of Inner Mongolia silicon ferroalloy from 2021 - 2025 [18] - Production Situation of Dual - silicon Enterprises: It shows the weekly production and operating rate of domestic silicon manganese and silicon ferroalloy enterprises from 2021 - 2025 [24] - Steel Mill Production Situation: It shows the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate, weekly total steel production, profitability rate, and molten iron daily output of 247 steel mills, as well as the total social steel inventory from 2021 - 2025 [30] - Silicon Manganese Cost and Profit: On October 23, 2025, the production cost of Inner Mongolia is 5806 yuan/ton with a profit of - 126 yuan/ton; the production cost of Ningxia is 5852 yuan/ton with a profit of - 272 yuan/ton; etc. [32] - Cost - Manganese Ore Price: It shows the price of South African Mn36.5% semi - carbonate manganese lumps at Tianjin Port, the CIF quotation of South African South32 semi - carbonate manganese lumps for shipment, and the prices of different types of manganese ore from 2021 - 2025 [40] - Silicon Ferroalloy Cost and Profit: On October 23, 2025, the production cost of Inner Mongolia is 5616 yuan/ton with a profit of - 416 yuan/ton; the production cost of Ningxia is 5513 yuan/ton with a profit of - 333 yuan/ton; etc. [42] - Cost - Carbon Element and Electricity Price: It shows the prices of Fugu blue - carbon small materials, Yulin thermal coal lump coal, Ningxia chemical coke, and regional electricity prices from 2021 - 2025 [50][53] - Double - silicon Steel Tendering Price of Hebei Representative Steel Mills: It shows the steel tendering prices of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese of Hebei Iron and Steel Group from 2020 - 2025 [55] - Silicon Manganese and Silicon Ferroalloy Supply - Monthly Production: It shows the cumulative and monthly production of domestic silicon manganese and silicon ferroalloy from 2021 - 2025 [62][66] - Manganese Ore and Silicon Ferroalloy Import and Export: It shows the monthly net import volume of domestic manganese ore and the monthly net export volume of domestic silicon ferroalloy from 2013 - 2025 [70] - Magnesium Metal Demand: It shows the price of Fugu magnesium metal Mg99.9% and the cumulative production of magnesium metal in Yulin, Shaanxi from 2013 - 2025 [73] - Silicon Ferroalloy Inventory of Alloy Plants vs Steel Mills: It shows the silicon ferroalloy inventory of alloy plants and steel mills' available days of silicon ferroalloy inventory from 2021 - 2025 [77][81] - Manganese Ore Inventory of Alloy Plants, Steel Mills, and Ports: It shows the available days of silicon manganese inventory of steel mills, the total manganese ore inventory at Tianjin Port, and the silicon manganese inventory of alloy plants from 2021 - 2025 [85]
低估值带动反弹，但供需压力仍存
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-10-24 06:57