负熵、牛市和趋势投资（策略哲思系列之一）：股市中的正反馈机制

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the presence of positive feedback mechanisms in the stock market, including herd behavior, incremental capital inflows, and leverage trading as amplifiers of trends [1][2][3] - It suggests maintaining high confidence in the current systematic slow bull market while cautiously avoiding increased volatility in high-positioned sectors [6][4] Understanding Positive Feedback - Positive feedback is characterized as a "negative entropy" accumulation, explaining why prices can temporarily deviate from fundamentals, leading to accelerated trends in both bull and bear markets [2][4] - The mechanisms driving positive feedback include behavioral psychology, trading systems, buyer incentives, and the cyclical behavior of listed companies [3][4] Switching Between Strategies - Investors are encouraged to switch between trend-following and reversal strategies based on market conditions, which can help identify signals of market overheating or cooling [4][5] Investment Recommendations - The current A-share market is in a systematic slow bull phase, with expectations of continued incremental capital inflows and wealth effects [6][28] - It is advised to maintain a balanced style allocation while increasing the decision weight of mean-reversion factors [6][42] Sources of Positive Feedback Mechanisms - Herd behavior and incremental capital inflows are driven by fear of missing out and the anxiety of being left behind, leading to a self-reinforcing cycle in bull markets [28][29] - Leverage trading acts as a trend amplifier, where rising stock prices lead to increased borrowing and further price increases [37][38] Market Dynamics - The report highlights that in bull markets, positive feedback can lead to significant price increases, while in bear markets, it can result in accelerated declines [26][40] - The relationship between leverage and market trends is crucial, as high leverage can exacerbate price movements in both directions [42][43]