Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-24 08:19Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper market may oscillate due to the current weak supply - demand situation and positive future expectations [6] - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a state of temporary supply - demand weakness, with industrial inventory accumulating, but domestic macro - control may gradually repair consumption expectations [6] - It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trades and control trading rhythm and risks [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - on - Week Summary - The Shanghai copper main contract showed a slightly stronger weekly oscillation, with a weekly increase of 3.95% and an amplitude of 4.09%. The closing price of the main contract this week was 87,720 yuan/ton [6] - Internationally, the US federal government "shutdown" may lead to the suspension of the food - stamp program in November, affecting 42 million low - income people. Domestically, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee put forward the main goals for economic and social development during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period [6] - Fundamentally, copper concentrate supply is continuously tight, TC fees are in the negative range, and the ore price is firm. Domestic smelting capacity has decreased due to many maintenance operations and tight raw - material supply, and refined - copper supply has slightly tightened. High copper prices have suppressed downstream demand, and currently, downstream buyers mainly make purchases based on rigid demand and are highly watchful [6] 2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures Contracts: As of October 24, 2025, the basis of the Shanghai copper main contract was - 1,300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,685 yuan/ton. The main - contract price was 87,720 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3,330 yuan/ton, and the position volume was 275,672 lots, a week - on - week increase of 60,099 lots [12] - Spot Prices: As of October 24, 2025, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 86,420 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 690 yuan/ton. The inter - month spread of the Shanghai copper main contract was 20 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton [15] - Premiums and Positions: As of the latest data this week, the average CIF premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 52 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2 US dollars/ton. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was a net short of - 24,968 lots, a decrease of 14,125 lots from last week [24] 3. Option Market - As of October 24, 2025, the short - term implied volatility of the Shanghai copper main - contract at - the - money option fell to around the 75th percentile of historical volatility. As of this week's data, the put - call ratio of Shanghai copper option positions was 0.7873, a week - on - week increase of 0.0388 [29] 4. Upstream Situation - Mining Quotes and Processing Fees: The quotes of upstream copper mines have strengthened, and the processing fees of blister copper have weakened. As of the latest data this week, the quote of copper concentrate in the main domestic mining area (Jiangxi) was 76,710 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 520 yuan/ton. The processing fee of southern blister copper this week was 900 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton [30] - Imports and Price Differences: As of September 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.5869 million tons, a decrease of 172,000 tons from August, a decline of 6.23% and a year - on - year increase of 6.24%. As of the latest data this week, the price difference between refined and scrap copper (tax - included) was 3,425.14 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 483.43 yuan/ton [36] - Global Production and Inventories: As of August 2025, the global monthly production of copper concentrates was 1.937 million tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from July, a decline of 0.26%. The global capacity utilization rate of copper concentrates was 77.5%, a decrease of 0.4% from July. As of the latest data, the inventory of copper concentrates in seven domestic ports was 468,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 41,000 tons [41] 5. Industry Situation - Refined - Copper Production: As of September 2025, the monthly production of refined copper in China was 1.266 million tons, a decrease of 35,000 tons from August, a decline of 2.69% and a year - on - year increase of 11.25%. As of August 2025, the global monthly production of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2.451 million tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons from July, a decline of 0.33%. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper was 81%, a decrease of 0.5% from July [44] - Refined - Copper Imports: As of September 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 374,075.583 tons, an increase of 66,847.36 tons from August, an increase of 21.76% and a year - on - year increase of 7.44%. As of the latest data this week, the import profit and loss amount was - 1,608.72 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,053.96 yuan/ton [50][51] - Social Inventories: As of the latest data this week, the total LME inventory decreased by 300 tons from last week, the total COMEX inventory increased by 1,917 tons from last week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 7,778 tons from last week. The total social inventory was 189,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,700 tons [54] 6. Downstream and Application - Copper Products: As of September 2025, the monthly production of copper products was 2.232 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from August, an increase of 0.45%. The monthly import volume of copper products was 490,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons from August, an increase of 13.95% and a year - on - year increase of 2.08% [60] - Applications: As of August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of power and grid investment completion were 0.54% and 13.99% respectively. As of September 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of the monthly production values of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs were 5.6%, - 3%, - 2%, - 6.7%, and 3.9% respectively [64] - Real Estate and Integrated Circuits: As of September 2025, the cumulative completed investment in real - estate development was 6.770571 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9% and a month - on - month increase of 12.26%. The cumulative production of integrated circuits was 381.88702 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 8.6% and a month - on - month increase of 11.37% [71] 7. Overall Situation - According to ICSG statistics, as of August 2025, the global supply - demand balance of refined copper showed an oversupply, with a monthly value of 47,000 tons. According to WBMS statistics, as of August 2025, the cumulative global supply - demand balance was 256,500 tons [76][77]