Tong Hui Qi Huo·2025-10-24 08:16Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The current lithium carbonate futures price is strongly supported by the demand side. The surge in orders in the power and energy storage sectors drives the spot price to rise steadily. Coupled with the accelerated inventory depletion, the market's expectation of supply tightness continues to heat up. Although lithium salt production capacity is gradually being released, the ramp - up period of newly launched projects is long, and the lithium ore price has not risen, so the cost side does not form a drag. The market's long - term expectation has changed marginally again due to the news that Jianxiaowo may not resume production in November. The price is expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillation in the future [1][2][3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - Carbonate Lithium Futures Market Data Changes: On October 23, the price of the main lithium carbonate futures contract rose significantly to 79,940 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 3.66%. The basis weakened to - 5,140 yuan/ton, and the futures premium widened. The open interest of the main contract increased by 18.66% to 419,000 lots, and the trading volume increased by 30.41% to 491,000 lots [1]. - Supply - demand and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain: On the supply side, the capacity utilization rate of lithium salt plants increased to 74.39%, new production lines of spodumene and salt lakes continued to release production capacity, but the price of spodumene concentrate remained at 6,685 yuan/ton, with limited cost - side support. Tianqi Lithium's 30,000 - ton lithium hydroxide project in Zhangjiagang was put into production, but it had little impact on the diversion of lithium carbonate supply in the short term. On the demand side, the demand for power batteries increased explosively. From October 1 - 19, the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 56.1%. The price of lithium iron phosphate battery cells rose to 0.338 yuan/Wh, and the price of ternary materials exceeded 136,500 yuan/ton. The energy storage market also expanded. Leading enterprises such as CATL were operating at full capacity and accelerating expansion. The prices of auxiliary materials such as electrolyte and lithium hexafluorophosphate rose due to cost - push. Lithium carbonate inventory decreased for two consecutive weeks, dropping to 132,700 tons on October 17, with a faster - than - expected destocking speed [2]. - Market Summary: The current lithium carbonate futures price is mainly supported by the demand side. The surge in orders in the power and energy storage fields drives the spot price to rise steadily. Coupled with the accelerated inventory depletion, the market's expectation of supply tightness continues to increase. Although lithium salt production capacity is gradually being released, the ramp - up period of newly launched projects is long, and the lithium ore price has not risen, so the cost side does not form a drag. The market's long - term expectation has changed again due to the news that Jianxiaowo may not resume production in November [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On October 23, the main lithium carbonate futures contract price was 79,940 yuan/ton, up 3.66% from the previous day. The basis was - 5,140 yuan/ton, down 54.82% from the previous day. The open interest of the main contract was 419,147 lots, up 18.66%, and the trading volume was 490,920 lots, up 30.41%. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 74,800 yuan/ton, up 1.36%. The market price of spodumene concentrate was 6,685 yuan/ton, unchanged. The market price of lithium mica concentrate was 3,400 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 90,500 yuan/ton, up 4.02%. The price of power - type ternary materials was 136,500 yuan/ton, up 0.15%. The price of power - type lithium iron phosphate was 34,395 yuan/ton, up 0.61% [5]. - From October 17 to October 10, the lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate increased from 71.31% to 74.39%, up 4.32%. The lithium carbonate inventory decreased from 134,801 tons to 132,658 tons, down 1.59%. The price of 523 cylindrical ternary battery cells was 4.50 yuan/piece, up 1.81%. The price of 523 square ternary battery cells was 0.49 yuan/Wh, up 24.49%. The price of 523 soft - pack ternary battery cells was 0.51 yuan/Wh, up 24.39%. The price of square lithium iron phosphate battery cells was 0.34 yuan/Wh, up 1.81%. The price of cobalt - acid lithium battery cells was 7.25 yuan/Ah, up 7.41% [5]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - Spot Market Quotations: On October 23, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 74,821 yuan/ton, up 458 yuan/ton from the previous day. The battery - grade lithium carbonate was priced at 74,000 - 75,600 yuan/ton, with an average price of 74,800 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan/ton. The industrial - grade lithium carbonate was priced at 71,950 - 73,150 yuan/ton, with an average price of 72,550 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan/ton. The lithium carbonate futures price continued to fluctuate, and the center of the main contract shifted up to the range of 77,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. Currently, the operating rate of downstream material factories continues to rise, and demand supports spot transactions. On the supply side, new production lines have been launched at both the spodumene and salt - lake ends, and the total lithium carbonate output in October is expected to have growth potential. On the demand side, both the commercial and passenger new energy vehicles in the power market are growing rapidly, and the energy storage market has strong supply and demand. Overall, although the supply in October is growing steadily, the strong demand in the power and energy storage fields will drive the market into a stage of significant inventory depletion, and a temporary supply - tight situation is expected to form [6]. - Downstream Consumption Situation: According to the data of the Passenger Car Association, from October 1 - 19, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market were 632,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 5% compared with the same period in October last year and a 2% increase compared with the same period last month. The retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market was 56.1%, and the cumulative retail sales this year were 9.502 million units, a year - on - year increase of 23%. From October 1 - 19, the wholesale volume of new energy vehicles by national passenger car manufacturers was 676,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 6% compared with the same period in October last year and a 5% increase compared with the same period last month. The wholesale penetration rate of new energy vehicles by national passenger car manufacturers was 58.5%, and the cumulative wholesale volume this year was 11.123 million units, a year - on - year increase of 30% [7]. - Industry News: On October 20, Tianqi Lithium announced that after repeated debugging and optimization, the first bag of battery - grade lithium hydroxide products from its 30,000 - ton lithium hydroxide project in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu, passed the sampling inspection of the company's internal laboratory, and all parameters were confirmed to meet the battery - grade lithium hydroxide standard. On October 16, the overall price of the echelon market remained stable. On the supply side, affected by the traditional sales peak season of "Golden September and Silver October", the output of battery cell factories increased, providing some support for the number of battery cells in the echelon recycling field. On the demand side, the acceptance of higher prices was low. However, on the cost side, due to the adjustment of the cobalt export policy in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the price of cobalt salts rose significantly, driving up the prices of ternary cathode materials and new battery cells. Recently, the lithium salt price has remained relatively stable. Some enterprises, considering cost control, have gradually shifted their short - term purchasing targets to lithium iron phosphate battery cells. Also, the previous price increase has reached the psychological expectation of downstream enterprises, which together keep the echelon market price stable. On October 16, for quarterly orders or large - volume single orders, the actual settlement discount between precursor manufacturers and cathode material enterprises has been significantly increased [9][10]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides data charts including the main lithium carbonate futures and basis, the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the price of lithium concentrate, the prices of lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte, the price of ternary precursor, the price of ternary materials, the price of lithium iron phosphate, the lithium carbonate operating rate, the lithium carbonate inventory, and the battery cell selling price [11][14][15]