原油、燃料油日报：地缘扰动叠加供应收紧预期，油价强势反弹-20251024

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices are expected to maintain a strong rebound in the short term, with SC crude oil potentially showing stronger performance. The supply side is subject to disruptions such as restricted Russian oil exports, refinery accidents, and geopolitical conflicts, strengthening the expectation of a marginal tightening. On the demand side, although local refining capacity is damaged, India's shift to non - Russian crude oil procurement and geopolitical risk premiums still provide support. The strengthening of the SC - Brent spread reflects that the Chinese market is more sensitive to supply disruptions, and combined with the boost of domestic shale oil reserve increase news to long - term expectations, SC crude oil may continue to be relatively strong [8]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary a. Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes Analysis - On October 23, 2025, the price of the SC crude oil main contract rose significantly by 3.48% to 459.7 yuan/barrel, up 12.5 yuan from the previous day. WTI and Brent prices remained stable at 59.38 and 64.35 US dollars/barrel respectively. The SC - Brent spread changed from - 1.58 US dollars/barrel to 0.2 US dollars/barrel, strengthening by 112.66%, and the SC - WTI spread also widened by 1.78 US dollars to 5.17 US dollars/barrel. The Brent - WTI spread remained unchanged at 4.97 US dollars/barrel [2]. - Crude oil futures warehouse receipt data was generally stable. Medium - sulfur crude oil warehouse receipts remained at 5.211 million barrels, and low - sulfur fuel oil and fuel oil warehouse receipts were also flat. The SC crude oil continuous - continuous 3 spread rebounded slightly from - 7.0 yuan/barrel to - 5.8 yuan/barrel, narrowing the near - month discount [3]. b. Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - Supply side: US sanctions on Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil directly impacted Russian oil exports. Indian refineries planned to significantly cut Russian oil imports due to sanctions. Attacks on Russian refineries and sanctions on them further increased the risk of damage to Russian refining capacity. The opening of drilling in Alaska in the US and the discovery of shale oil in the Sichuan Basin in China provided potential long - term supply increments, but had limited short - term impact [4]. - Demand side: The Chevron El Segundo refinery's hydrocracking unit was shut down for three weeks, potentially suppressing local US crude oil demand. However, Indian refineries' "readjustment" of Russian oil imports to other sources might increase the procurement demand for non - Russian crude oil. Geopolitical conflict escalation could stimulate risk - aversion sentiment and indirectly support oil prices [5]. - Inventory side: US Cushing and commercial crude oil inventories showed no significant fluctuations. Chinese warehouse receipt data remained stable, and OECD member countries' inventory pressure was not prominent. Low - sulfur fuel oil and fuel oil warehouse receipts were flat, indicating no expectation of inventory accumulation for refined oil products, and refinery profits might maintain resilience [6]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring a. Crude Oil - Futures prices: On October 23, 2025, the SC price was 459.70 yuan/barrel, up 2.80% from the previous day; WTI was 61.75 US dollars/barrel, up 3.99%; Brent was 65.26 US dollars/barrel, up 1.41%. - Spot prices: The OPEC basket price remained unchanged at 63.36 US dollars/barrel. Other spot prices such as Brent, Oman, etc., showed varying degrees of increase. - Spreads: The SC - Brent spread strengthened by 55.06% to - 0.71 US dollars/barrel, the SC - WTI spread decreased by 17.40% to 2.80 US dollars/barrel, and the Brent - WTI spread decreased by 29.38% to 3.51 US dollars/barrel. The SC continuous - continuous 3 spread increased by 17.14% to - 5.80 yuan/barrel. - Other assets: The US dollar index, S&P 500, DAX index, etc., also showed certain changes. - Inventory and开工: US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 0.23%, Cushing inventory decreased by 3.50%, and the US strategic reserve inventory increased by 0.20%. The US refinery weekly开工率 increased by 3.38% to 88.60%, and the US refinery crude oil processing volume increased by 3.97% to 1.573 million barrels/day [9]. b. Fuel Oil - Futures prices: FU was 2,752.00 yuan/ton, up 2.27%; LU was 3,193.00 yuan/ton, up 1.82%; NYMEX fuel oil was 238.33 cents/gallon, up 4.27%. - Spot prices: Some spot prices such as the marine 180CST Singapore FOB and marine 380Cst Singapore FOB increased, while others remained unchanged. - Paper prices: High - sulfur 180 and high - sulfur 380 Singapore (near - month) paper prices increased. - Spreads: The Singapore high - low sulfur spread decreased by 30.81% to 42.97 US dollars/ton, and the Chinese high - low sulfur spread decreased by 0.90% to 441.00 yuan/ton. - Inventory: Singapore fuel oil inventory increased by 5.89% to 2,506.30 million barrels, and US distillate inventories showed different changes [10]. 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation a. Supply - On October 24, the Trump administration announced the opening of oil drilling in the coastal plain of Alaska. - On October 23, the Ukrainian military attacked the Ryazan refinery in Russia. Due to US sanctions, Indian refineries planned to cut Russian oil imports significantly, and some Indian companies stopped or readjusted Russian oil imports. China discovered a new shale oil resource in the Sichuan Basin [11][12]. b. Demand - The main contract of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) rose more than 2.00% intraday, and the Chevron El Segundo refinery's hydrocracking unit was shut down for three weeks after a fire [13]. c. Inventory - Low - sulfur fuel oil and fuel oil futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and medium - sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipts also remained unchanged. Some other warehouse receipts such as petroleum asphalt decreased [14]. d. Market Information - As of 2:30 closing, the main contracts of Shanghai gold, Shanghai silver, and SC crude oil showed different price changes. The UK government imposed sanctions on a Dubai oil trading company, and the spot premium of Middle East benchmark Dubai crude oil soared. Poland supported the destruction of the "Friendship" oil pipeline [15]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes various data charts such as WTI, Brent first - line contract prices and spreads, SC and WTI spread statistics, US crude oil weekly production, etc., with data sources from WIND, EIA, etc. [17][19][21]