甲醇日评20251024：原油上涨或推动甲醇反弹-20251024

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The recent rise in oil prices may drive a rebound in methanol prices, but the magnitude is likely to be limited. It's advisable to wait before going long on methanol. Methanol prices are relatively high in terms of valuation compared to upstream coal and downstream polyolefin prices. In terms of short - term upward drivers, they are also limited due to high port inventory pressure and insufficient downstream restocking drivers. The inventory turning point may occur around mid - November, and potential future drivers mainly lie in possible supply reductions such as the expected gas restrictions in Iran. Overall, it's recommended to wait before going long on methanol, and the trading strategy is to stay on the sidelines [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices and Their Differences - Methanol Futures Prices (Closing Prices): MA01 increased from 2261 yuan/ton to 2292 yuan/ton, a rise of 31 yuan/ton or 1.37%; MA05 rose from 2300 yuan/ton to 2329 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton or 1.26%; MA09 increased from 2259 yuan/ton to 2285 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton or 1.15% [1] - Methanol Regular Prices (Daily Averages): Prices in Shandong, Guangdong, and Shaanxi increased, with Shaanxi rising 15 yuan/ton or 0.74%. Prices in Sichuan - Chongqing and Hubei remained unchanged, while the price in Inner Mongolia increased by 2.5 yuan/ton or 0.12%. The price in Taicang decreased by 5 yuan/ton or 0.22% [1] - Spread: The spread between Taicang spot and MA decreased from - 16 yuan/ton to - 52 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Upstream Costs - Coal Spot Prices: The price of Ordos Q5500 increased from 575 yuan/ton to 580 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton or 0.87%; the price of Datong Q5500 rose from 652.5 yuan/ton to 662.5 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton or 1.53%. The price of Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged [1] - Industrial Natural Gas Prices: Prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.21 yuan/cubic meter and 3.14 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1] 3.3 Profit Situation - Methanol Production Profits: Coal - based methanol profit decreased from 244.4 yuan/ton to 238.1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.3 yuan/ton or 2.58%. Natural gas - based methanol profit remained unchanged at - 472 yuan/ton [1] - MTO Profits: Northwest MTO profit increased from - 37 yuan/ton to - 2 yuan/ton, a rise of 35 yuan/ton or 94.59%. East China MTO profit increased from - 802.07 yuan/ton to - 770.57 yuan/ton, up 31.5 yuan/ton or 3.93% [1] - Methanol Downstream Profits: Acetic acid profit decreased from 505.52 yuan/ton to 477 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28.52 yuan/ton or 5.64%. Formaldehyde profit decreased from - 263.6 yuan/ton to - 273.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton or 3.79%. MTBE and ethylene glycol profits remained unchanged [1] 3.4 Information - Domestic Information: The main methanol contract MA2601 fluctuated upwards, opening at 2260 yuan/ton and closing at 2292 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 704,659 lots, and open interest was 1,066,380, with increased volume and decreased open interest [1] - Foreign Information: The reference negotiation price for non - Iranian methanol vessels arriving in the far - month is 257 - 264 US dollars/ton. There is a lack of active bids and offers. For methanol vessels from other Middle - East regions arriving in the far - month, the reference negotiation is at - 1 - 0.5%. Buyers intend to purchase discounted goods, but sellers are cautious. Attention should be paid to the methanol plants and cargo - discharging situation in a Middle - East country [1]