南华期货沥青风险管理日报-20251024

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - Affected by news that the US may launch a military strike on Venezuela, both crude oil and asphalt prices have risen recently. As Venezuelan crude oil accounts for over 20% of China's asphalt refineries' oil use, the market is worried about supply disruptions. However, short - term Venezuelan crude oil shipments have not been substantially affected [3]. - Refinery operations are stable, and overall asphalt supply has changed little. Due to the National Day holiday, demand is weak, with the market mainly consuming social inventories. The short - term peak season has not exceeded expectations. Inventory structure has improved, with stable and low - pressure refinery inventories and declining social inventories [3]. - Issues such as raw material shortages and tight heavy oil supplies have not been substantially alleviated, so the asphalt crack spread remains high. In the future, the cost of crude oil is expected to decline as OPEC continues to increase production [3]. - The short - term peak season for asphalt has not exceeded expectations. With increased external disturbances, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term or look for pressure levels to short after the price rises [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price and Volatility - The predicted monthly price range for the asphalt main contract is 3000 - 3450, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 17.25% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 25.49% [2]. 2. Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - When product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, to prevent inventory losses, 25% of the inventory can be hedged by shorting the bu2512 asphalt futures contract at an entry range of 3650 - 3750. Additionally, 20% of the inventory can be hedged by selling the bu2512C3500 call option at an entry range of 30 - 40 to reduce capital costs [2]. Procurement Management - When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, to prevent price increases from raising procurement costs, 50% of the inventory can be hedged by buying the bu2512 asphalt futures contract at an entry range of 3300 - 3400. Also, 20% of the inventory can be hedged by selling the bu2512C3500 put option at an entry range of 25 - 35 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs [2]. 3. Market Influencing Factors Bullish Factors - Asphalt refinery inventory pressure is low, providing a basis for price support from manufacturers [6]. - In Shandong, Shengxing has resumed asphalt production, while Qicheng and Fengli have switched to producing residual oil. In the East China region, some major refineries have reduced production [6]. - There is an anti - cut - throat competition atmosphere, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has emphasized resisting disorderly price wars [6]. - There is a possibility of an escalation of the conflict between the US and Venezuela [7]. Bearish Factors - Recently, the arrival of Venezuelan crude oil in China has increased [12]. - OPEC+ will continue to increase production in November [12]. - The escalation of US - China tariffs has weakened the overall sentiment in the risk market [12]. 4. Price and Basis Data - On October 24, 2025, the spot prices of asphalt in Shandong, the Yangtze River Delta, North China, and South China were 3340 yuan/ton, 3470 yuan/ton, 3340 yuan/ton, and 3400 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of 0 and weekly changes of - 40 yuan/ton, - 30 yuan/ton, - 70 yuan/ton, and - 40 yuan/ton [8]. - The basis of Shandong, Yangtze River Delta, North China, and South China spot for the 12 - contract asphalt on October 24, 2025, was 25 yuan/ton, 155 yuan/ton, 25 yuan/ton, and 85 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of 1 and weekly changes of - 155 yuan/ton, - 145 yuan/ton, - 185 yuan/ton, and - 155 yuan/ton [8]. - The crack spread of Shandong spot to Brent crude oil was 113.8054 yuan/barrel, with a weekly change of - 35.9912 yuan/barrel. The crack spread of the futures main contract to Brent crude oil was 106.7006 yuan/barrel, with a daily change of 3.8123 yuan/barrel and a weekly change of - 0.6403 yuan/barrel [8].