Dongguan Securities·2025-10-24 08:46Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the lithium battery industry chain [1] Core Views - In Q3 2025, China's energy storage battery shipments increased by over 60% year-on-year, with total shipments for the first three quarters exceeding 30% of last year's total [8][44] - The domestic energy storage cell supply is tight, with leading battery companies operating at full capacity, and this supply-demand imbalance is expected to continue until Q1 2026 [8][49] - The new energy vehicle market is in a traditional peak season, particularly with rapid growth in sales of new energy commercial vehicles, sustaining overall demand for lithium batteries [8][49] - The report highlights the ongoing industrialization of solid-state batteries, with significant breakthroughs in key technologies recently achieved [8][49] - It suggests focusing on leading companies with technological and cost advantages across the industry chain, particularly those involved in solid-state battery core processes and materials [8][49] Summary by Sections Market Review - As of October 23, 2025, the lithium battery index has decreased by 9.36% over the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 7.17 percentage points [15] - Year-to-date, the lithium battery index has increased by 49.03%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 31.97 percentage points [15] Price Changes in the Lithium Battery Industry Chain - As of October 23, 2025, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is 74,800 CNY/ton, up 2.61% in the last two weeks [29] - The price of lithium hydroxide (LiOH 56.5%) is 72,200 CNY/ton, increasing by 0.84% [29] - The price of lithium iron phosphate has decreased by 2.62% to 33,400 CNY/ton, while NCM523, NCM622, and NCM811 have seen increases of 16.26%, 13.20%, and 8.36% respectively [32] - The price of electrolyte lithium hexafluorophosphate has surged by 38.10% to 87,000 CNY/ton [35] - The average price of wet separators has risen by 5.80% to 0.73 CNY/sqm [40] Industry News - The report notes that in Q3 2025, China's energy storage battery shipments reached 165 GWh, a 65% increase year-on-year, with total shipments for the first three quarters reaching 430 GWh [44] - The report also highlights that from January to September 2025, China's lithium battery exports increased by 19.14% in quantity and 26.75% in value [44] - The global battery production in September 2025 was 216.7 GWh, a 50.8% year-on-year increase [44] Company Announcements - The report identifies key companies to watch, including CATL (300750), EVE Energy (300014), and others, based on their strong performance and market positioning [51]