格林大华期货铜报告：抢占科技发展制高点

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee's communique is favorable for the technology sector, and the science - innovation 50 index has regained strength. The stock market is crucial for boosting residents' consumption confidence, and a stable stock market can enhance the internal impetus of the domestic economic cycle. In the context of weakening export expectations and investment slowdown, consumption will be the main driving force for economic growth in the fourth quarter [5][9][20] - The "15th Five - Year Plan Suggestions" propose forward - looking layout of future industries, with quantum technology, bio - manufacturing, hydrogen energy and nuclear fusion energy, brain - computer interface, embodied intelligence, 6G and other fields becoming new economic growth points. Chinese capital may be migrating structurally towards stocks, attracting overseas investors [20] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomic Policy - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee emphasizes adhering to the economic construction as the center, promoting high - quality development, achieving self - reliance and strength in high - level science and technology, expanding domestic demand, steadily expanding institutional opening - up, improving people's livelihood, and promoting green transformation [4][5][6] - The "Learning Times" article highlights the importance of stabilizing the stock market in increasing residents' property income and boosting consumption confidence [9] Stock Market Conditions - The Shanghai Composite Index has reached a new high in 10 years. The Shanghai 50 Index representing the value style has reached a new high in the first half of the week. After being encouraged by the Fourth Plenary Session's communique, the technology sector led the rise on Friday, and the chip sector also regained strength [11][14][17] - The financing balance remains stable, with 2.93 million new A - share accounts opened in September. In August, non - bank financial institutions had an increase of 1.18 trillion yuan in RMB deposits, indicating a transfer of residents' savings to the stock market. The year - on - year growth rate of M1 in September reached 7.2%, which is conducive to the upward movement of the stock market [22][25][28] Economic Data - In September, the core CPI increased by 1.0% year - on - year, and the CPI for consumer goods increased by 0.3% month - on - month. The year - on - year growth rate of manufacturing fixed - asset investment in September was - 1.9%, infrastructure investment decreased by 7.9% year - on - year, and real estate development investment continued to decline with a year - on - year growth rate of - 21.2% [31][34][40] - The total retail sales of consumer goods in September was 4.19 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 3.0%. The output of industrial robots in September was 76,200 units, a new record, with a year - on - year growth rate of 41.1% [43][46] International Market - After the US imposed reciprocal tariffs on various countries, China's commodity competitiveness increased, and the US imports from China in August increased by nearly 40% month - on - month. The total retail and food sales in the US in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding expectations. The sales of US wholesalers in August reached a record high of 711.3 billion US dollars, with a year - on - year increase of 6.2% [49][52][55] - The US capital goods imports in August were 91.9 billion US dollars, still at a high level, with a year - on - year growth rate of 10.5%, indicating an acceleration of the US "re - industrialization" [58] Investment Strategy - For stock index futures directional trading, wait for the clarity of the China - US negotiation at the end of the month. The long positions of stock index futures should be mainly allocated to the CSI 300 Index and the Shanghai 50 Index. For stock index option trading, as the market is still in a large - range volatile consolidation state, it is advisable to wait and see [20][21] - Before and after the China - US agreement at the end of the month, consider buying out - of - the - money long - term call options on the stock index, with the CSI 300 Index being a good choice for both offense and defense [64][66]