国信期货有色（铝产业链）月报：警惕氧化铝“过山车”行情，铝价向上突破仍可期待-20251024

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - In November 2025, alumina futures prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with a bottom - support around 2700 yuan/ton and an upper - pressure around 3000 yuan/ton. The overall trend is bearish, but cost support and potential supply disruptions limit the downside. [3][90] - Shanghai aluminum is expected to show a moderately strong oscillating trend, with an upper - pressure in the range of 21500 - 22000 yuan/ton and a solid support around 20500 yuan/ton. [4] - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to oscillate in the range of 19000 - 21500 yuan/ton, driven by the mid - term strong expectation of aluminum prices, cost support, and policy factors. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Alumina: Since October, alumina futures prices have shown a trend of bottom - probing and then rebounding slightly. Supply surplus persists, and prices once hit a low of 2773 yuan/ton. By October 24, the main contract 2601 closed at 2810 yuan/ton, down 2.02% from September 30. [8][9] - Electrolytic Aluminum: In October, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated at a high level and gradually stabilized above 21000 yuan/ton. By October 24, the main contract 2512 closed at 21225 yuan/ton, up 2.64% from September 30. The outer - market aluminum price also reached a new high since May 2022. [11][14][17] - Aluminum Alloy: In October, the casting aluminum alloy futures price followed the trend of Shanghai aluminum futures, showing a pattern of rising, then falling back, and finally oscillating. By October 24, the main contract AD2512 closed at 20705 yuan/ton, up 2.45% from September 30. [18][22] 3.2 Macroeconomic Hotspots Tracking - Market Expectation of Fed Rate Cuts: The market strongly expects the Fed to cut rates twice within the year, but there are still differences within the Fed. Powell's speech strengthened the market's expectation of a rate cut in October. [23] - Sino - US Trade Friction: In October, Sino - US trade friction intensified, causing a decline in the prices of industrial metals such as copper and aluminum. Subsequently, Trump's attitude changed, and the impact of tariff policies on aluminum prices may shift to indirect transmission paths. [26][27] - Domestic Macroeconomic Data and Events: In September, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The comprehensive PMI output index was 50.6%, up 0.1 percentage points. The GDP in the first three quarters of 2025 increased by 5.2% year - on - year. In addition, relevant policies such as the "14th Five - Year Plan" are expected to bring benefits to the aluminum industry. [28][33][38] 3.3 Aluminum Industry Chain Analysis 3.3.1 Alumina - Bauxite Supply: In September 2025, China's domestic bauxite production decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. Imported bauxite decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. From September to October, the shipment volume of Guinean bauxite gradually recovered. The overall bauxite inventory is at a relatively high historical level, but factors such as Guinea's elections and mine incidents remain uncertain. [39][40][50] - Cost Analysis: In October, the average cost of alumina decreased, mainly due to the decline in bauxite prices. The cost of caustic soda used in alumina also decreased, while the energy cost increased slightly. In November, the change in alumina production cost is expected to be limited, and the industry's profitability is difficult to recover. [52][60][62] - Capacity and Production: In October, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic alumina decreased, and it is expected that the production in October will decrease compared with September. Overseas, the alumina import window has been open since September, and the import volume is expected to increase. [63][64][70] - Inventory and Price: Since October, alumina inventory has continued to accumulate, and the spot price has been falling. The overall supply - demand balance of alumina has been in a state of surplus for four consecutive months, and it is expected to remain so in October. [76][77][84] - Conclusion: In November 2025, alumina futures prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, and investors are advised to adopt an oscillating trading strategy while guarding against risks from sudden supply disruptions. [89][90] 3.3.2 Aluminum - Cost and Profit: In October, the smelting cost of electrolytic aluminum decreased, and the industry profit continued to expand. In November, the cost is expected to decline slightly and then stabilize, and the industry will maintain strong profitability. [92][97][99] - Supply Situation: In October, China's electrolytic aluminum capacity utilization rate continued to rise, and the production in September increased year - on - year. Overseas, Century Aluminum's Icelandic plant had a production reduction. In September, the import and export volume of primary aluminum both increased year - on - year. [100][102][103] - Inventory Changes: In October, aluminum ingot inventory first increased and then decreased, entering the seasonal destocking stage. The inventory of aluminum rods also showed a downward trend. Exchange inventories showed different trends, with the SHFE inventory increasing and the LME inventory decreasing. [110][112][120] - Demand Analysis: In October, the peak season for downstream aluminum demand continued, but there is a risk of transitioning to the off - season. Different terminal industries have different impacts on aluminum demand. In November, the overall demand will be supported by the home appliance, automobile, and power grid sectors, but there are also uncertainties. [123][160] - Export Situation: In September 2025, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased year - on - year, and the export volume of aluminum profiles also decreased. The recovery of export demand requires time. [161]