格林大华期货螺纹主力3000具有较强的韧性

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Date: October 24, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Ji Xiaoyun, Contact: 010 - 56711796, Futures Qualification No.: F3066027, Futures Trading Consultation No.: Z0011402 [3] Group 2: Steel and Ore Views - Current Situation: In the current policy vacuum period, this week's screw and coil production and apparent demand both increased, with hot - rolled coils stronger than screws in production and sales. Inventory continued to decline, and both screws and coils were in a continuous de - stocking state. However, the total steel output decreased, mainly in medium and heavy plates. Upstream coal mine safety inspections led to a second round of coke price increases, which are likely to be implemented, supporting finished products. The current daily hot metal output is 239.9 million tons, a weekly decrease of 1.05 million tons, still at a relatively high level. This week, the steel mill profitability rate was 47.62%, a 7.79% decrease from last week. Electric - arc furnaces are in full - scale losses, while blast furnaces still have profits, creating a rigid demand for iron ore. It is expected that the hot metal output will continue to decline, likely falling below 230 million tons [5][24] - Price Forecast: The pressure level of the main screw contract is 3230, and close attention should be paid to whether 3000 can provide effective support. In the short term, 3000 has certain toughness. It is expected that iron ore will continue to maintain a volatile trend. The pressure level of the main 2601 contract is 833, and close attention should be paid to the support level of 750 [5][6] Group 3: Trading Strategies - Screw Strategy: Maintain the previous view that in the short term, the screw at 3000 still has strong toughness. When approaching 3000, it is recommended to try going long, and those who already have long positions should continue to hold. Once it effectively breaks below, it is recommended to stop loss and exit [6] - Iron Ore Strategy: It is recommended to operate short - term and set stop - losses. The spread between hot - rolled coils and screws has widened to over 200, and the room for further widening is limited [6] Group 4: Important Information - Ship Exports: In September, China exported 543 ships, a 24.0% year - on - year increase; from January to September, the cumulative exports were 5226 ships, a 23.5% year - on - year increase [7] - Industrial Added Value: In September, the value - added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.5% year - on - year in real terms. From January to September, it increased by 6.2% year - on - year [7] - Coal and Coke Production: In September, the output of raw coal was 41.1505 million tons, a 1.8% year - on - year decrease; from January to September, the cumulative output was 357.017 million tons, a 2.0% year - on - year increase. In September, the output of coke was 4.2556 million tons, an 8.0% year - on - year increase; from January to September, the cumulative output was 37.7161 million tons, a 3.5% year - on - year increase [7] - Steel Production: In September 2025, China's crude steel output was 73.49 million tons, a 4.6% year - on - year decrease; pig iron output was 66.05 million tons, a 2.4% year - on - year decrease; steel output was 124.21 million tons, a 5.1% year - on - year increase. From January to September, China's crude steel output was 746.25 million tons, a 2.9% year - on - year decrease; pig iron output was 645.86 million tons, a 1.1% year - on - year decrease; steel output was 1103.85 million tons, a 5.4% year - on - year increase [7] - Real Estate: From January to September, the national real estate development investment was 677.06 billion yuan, a 13.9% year - on - year decrease. The new housing start - up area decreased by 18.9%, and the housing completion area decreased by 15.3% [7] - Iron Ore Production and Sales: In the third quarter of 2025, Vale's total iron ore output was 94.4 million tons, a 12.9% quarter - on - quarter increase and a 3.8% year - on - year increase; total sales were 86 million tons, an 11.21% quarter - on - quarter increase and a 5.1% year - on - year increase [7] Group 5: Market Analysis - Steel Price Cycle: Steel prices generally follow a 7 - year cycle. From 2008 - 2015, they declined; from 2016 - 2021, they rose; from 2021 - 2025, they are in a decline cycle. Currently, they are still in the downward cycle [8] - Macro - level: The Fourth Plenary Session has a certain supporting effect on the market. However, the terminal market performance is still poor. Real estate investment growth continues to decline, infrastructure investment and manufacturing growth have been decreasing since April, and only exports remain at a relatively high level but are also showing a downward trend. The uncertainty of steel exports in the future has increased, and external demand cannot make up for the weak domestic demand [16] - Supply - side: From January to September, China's crude steel output continued to show negative year - on - year growth, and the reduction in pig iron output was relatively small [16] - Supply and Demand: This week, the supply of five major steel products was 8.6532 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 83,700 tons, an increase of 1.0%; the total inventory was 15.5485 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 274,100 tons, a decrease of 1.7%; the apparent consumption was 8.9273 million tons, a 2.2% month - on - month increase [17] - Structural Features: Screw production has been lower than the same period in previous years, while hot - rolled coil and medium - heavy plate production have been higher than in previous years. Hot metal has shifted to plates. This week, the increase in screw production was greater than that of hot - rolled coils, but the demand for hot - rolled coils was stronger. Electric - arc furnaces are in full - scale losses, while blast furnaces still have profits [20] - Iron Ore Inventory: The current iron ore port inventory has accumulated, and the inventory contradiction is not prominent. The inventory at Australian and Brazilian ports has been rapidly de - stocked, reaching a new low in the second half of the year [24] - Iron Ore Transportation: From September 29 to October 5, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 27.758 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.721 million tons; at 45 ports, it was 26.087 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.482 million tons. The global iron ore shipping volume decreased by 1.964 million tons week - on - week [27] - Spread: The spread between hot - rolled coils and screws has widened to over 200, and the inter - period trading opportunities are not significant [28]