中国宏观政策系列三：“十五五”期间关注总需求的扩张

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - "15th Five-Year Plan" focuses on the expansion of aggregate demand. In terms of aggregate, demand policies gain importance; in demand structure, there are changes in fiscal fund use; in industry structure, it emphasizes high - quality development [2]. - The reform enters a critical stage during the "15th Five - Year Plan". There are adjustments in market - government relations, subject expressions, and a greater emphasis on opening - up [3]. - Real estate becomes a part of people's livelihood during the "15th Five - Year Plan". High - quality real estate development is included in people's livelihood, and a new real estate development pattern is taking shape [3]. Summary by Directory Macro Events - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held from October 20th to 23rd, 2025. A press conference was held on October 24th to introduce and interpret the spirit of the meeting [1]. Two Plenary Session Communiqué Comparative Analysis First Part: Meeting Background - The 20th Fourth Plenary Session discussed the "15th Five - Year Plan" for national economic and social development. The 19th Fifth Plenary Session discussed the "14th Five - Year Plan" and the long - term goals for 2035 [7][9]. Second Part: Historical Evaluation - The 20th Fourth Plenary Session highly evaluated the achievements of the "14th Five - Year Plan" and the work of the Politburo since the 20th Third Plenary Session. The 19th Fifth Plenary Session evaluated the work since the 19th Fourth Plenary Session and the achievements of the "13th Five - Year Plan". The evaluation of the economy shows increased confidence [13][15][19]. Third Part: Stage Positioning - The "15th Five - Year Plan" is a crucial period for laying the foundation for basic socialist modernization. The global competition shifts from strategic defense to strategic stalemate, and domestic policy initiative will gradually increase [20][23]. Fourth Part: Principle Goals - Principles: The "15th Five - Year Plan" re - emphasizes "taking economic construction as the center", adds "putting people first", and removes "deepening supply - side structural reform" [24][31]. - Goals: The "15th Five - Year Plan" emphasizes significant achievements in high - quality development and new breakthroughs in comprehensive deep - level reform [25][31]. Fifth Part: Specific Requirements - Industry: The "15th Five - Year Plan" emphasizes "intelligent, green, and integrated" development, adds "space power" and "transportation power", and adjusts the descriptions of manufacturing and services [32][45]. - Science and Technology: It continues to emphasize high - level scientific and technological self - reliance and coordinates the "education, science, and talent" strategies [32][45]. - Market: It maintains the strategy of expanding domestic demand, with a more balanced supply - demand policy and a change in demand structure [33][46]. - Reform: It emphasizes the leading role of economic system reform, and changes the subject expression from "market players" to "business operators" [33][46]. - Opening - up: It is advanced in the communiqué, with "steady expansion" of institutional opening and "active expansion" of independent opening [33][47]. - Rural Areas: It emphasizes solving the "three rural issues", promotes urban - rural integration, and mentions "agricultural comprehensive production capacity" [34][48]. - Regions: It optimizes productivity layout and adds "marine development, utilization, and protection" [34][50]. - Culture: It aims to develop socialist culture with Marxism guiding ideology [35][50]. - People's Livelihood: It proposes to smooth social mobility channels and includes high - quality real estate development in people's livelihood [35][50]. Sixth Part: Party Building - The 20th Fourth Plenary Session emphasizes promoting self - revolution in the Party, comprehensive and strict governance of the Party, and implementing the spirit of the plenary session [51]. Seventh Part: Economic Situation - The 20th Fourth Plenary Session emphasizes achieving the annual economic and social development goals, with macro - policies continuing to exert force. It is believed that the 5% economic growth target can be achieved [54][55]. Eighth Part: Personnel Changes - The 20th Fourth Plenary Session decided to add Zhang Shengmin as the Vice - Chairman of the Central Military Commission, promote some alternate members to full members, and confirm the expulsion of some members due to disciplinary violations [58]. Ninth Part: Meeting Call - The 20th Fourth Plenary Session called on the whole Party, the whole army, and the people of all ethnic groups to unite around the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping as the core to promote socialist modernization [59].