光大期货能化商品日报-20251024

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report provides daily comments and views on various energy and chemical products, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride. Most products are expected to be in a volatile state [1][3][5]. - For crude oil, due to sanctions on Russia and potential supply disruptions, the price is expected to be strong, but macro - variables bring uncertainty [1]. - For fuel oil, the market structure of Asian low - sulfur fuel oil is weak, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure [3]. - For asphalt, terminal demand is weak, and high supply may suppress prices, but it may fluctuate with crude oil [3]. - For polyester, it follows the cost - side fluctuation with sufficient supply and some support from downstream demand [5]. - For rubber, it has a short - term rebound adjustment with some tightness in the liquidity of some rubber types [5]. - For methanol, supply is at a high level, and it is recommended to pay attention to certain trading strategies [7]. - For polyolefins, short - term crude oil rebound supports the price, but the fundamental driving force is weakening [7]. - For polyvinyl chloride, it has a demand for price repair, but the rebound height is limited due to high inventory [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Crude Oil: On Thursday, WTI 12 - month contract rose $3.29 to $61.79/barrel (5.62% increase), Brent 12 - month contract rose $3.40 to $65.99/barrel (5.43% increase), and SC2511 rose 10.6 yuan/barrel to 463.8 yuan/barrel (2.34% increase). Sanctions on Russia increase the risk of supply disruptions, and the EU's new sanctions also affect the market. However, macro - variables bring uncertainty to the price increase [1]. - Fuel Oil: On Thursday, FU2601 rose 3.42% to 2752 yuan/ton, and LU2512 rose 2.9% to 3190 yuan/ton. Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased, while Fujeirah's increased. The Asian low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil markets are under pressure [3]. - Asphalt: On Thursday, BU2601 rose 2.31% to 3277 yuan/ton. Terminal demand is weak, especially in the north due to weather, and high supply may suppress prices [3]. - Polyester: TA601 rose 0.58% to 4508 yuan/ton, EG2601 rose 1.09% to 4095 yuan/ton. Some devices have changes, and the polyester chain follows the cost - side fluctuation with support from downstream demand [5]. - Rubber: On Thursday, RU2601 rose 95 yuan/ton to 15245 yuan/ton, NR rose 80 yuan/ton to 12430 yuan/ton, and BR rose 70 yuan/ton to 11120 yuan/ton. Myanmar plans to increase rubber production, and the rubber market has a short - term rebound adjustment [5]. - Methanol: Supply is at a high level both domestically and overseas. It is recommended to pay attention to strategies such as going long on methanol and short on polyolefins and monthly positive spreads [7]. - Polyolefins: Short - term crude oil rebound supports the price, but the fundamental driving force is weakening as demand growth slows down [7]. - Polyvinyl Chloride: The price has a demand for repair, but the high inventory limits the rebound height due to large supply - demand pressure and weak export prospects [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on October 24, 2025, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [11]. 3.3 Market News - Trump imposed further sanctions on two major Russian oil companies, and the US Treasury Secretary announced the specific targets. These sanctions increase the risk of supply disruptions in Russia [15]. - The Kuwaiti oil minister said that OPEC is ready to increase production if necessary, but Putin believes that the global market needs time to replace Russian oil [15]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - 4.1 Main Contract Prices: The report shows the closing price trends of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, LPG, PTA, etc. [17][20][23]. - 4.2 Main Contract Basis: It presents the basis trends of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt, over different time periods [36][40][44]. - 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads: It shows the spreads between different contracts of various products, like fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc., over different time periods [50][52][55]. - 4.4 Inter - variety Spreads: It includes the spreads between different varieties, such as crude oil's internal and external spreads, B - W spreads, and spreads between other products like fuel oil and asphalt [66][72][73]. - 4.5 Production Profits: It shows the cash flow of ethylene - based ethylene glycol production and the production profits of PP and LLDPE [76]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team consists of members with different specializations, including a director, analysts for different product categories. Each member has rich experience and achievements in the energy and chemical research field [83][84][85].