房地产市场何时迎来“最后一跌”?

Market Overview - The current real estate market shows new homes with prices but low volume, while second-hand homes are trading price for volume[2] - Total transaction area for new and second-hand homes dropped from 1.93 billion square meters in 2021 to 1.5 billion square meters in 2022, stabilizing around 1.5 billion square meters in 2023 and 2024, with a forecast to maintain this level in 2025[2][18] New Home Market Dynamics - New home sales area is projected to decline from 1.57 billion square meters in 2021 to 810 million square meters in 2024, and further to 750 million square meters in 2025[18] - The pressure on new home sales is attributed to the rapid iteration of "good houses" leading to buyer hesitation and insufficient quality supply in core areas[2][26] Second-Hand Home Market Trends - The second-hand home market is experiencing a significant imbalance in supply and demand, with a 17.1% year-on-year increase in transaction area from January to September 2023, and a 29.7% increase in September alone[12] - Second-hand home prices have been under pressure, with a 0.7% month-on-month decline in September, marking the 41st consecutive month of price drops[12] Indicators for Market Stabilization - The proportion of second-hand home transactions is expected to approach or exceed Japan's steady state range of 60%-63% in 18 sample cities by mid-2024, indicating potential stabilization in new home sales volume[3][48] - The national rental yield is currently at 2.37%, which is slightly below the reasonable level of 2.4%-2.8%, suggesting room for price stabilization in the second-hand market[62] Economic and Policy Considerations - The stabilization of the real estate market is influenced by macroeconomic conditions and social expectations, with expectations for increased policy support in 2024[4] - The transition from old to new economic drivers is expected to create a new group of buyers, which could support the real estate market[4] Risks and Variability - The pace of market stabilization may vary across different cities and property types, with new home volume stabilizing before second-hand home prices[5] - Risks include slower-than-expected macroeconomic recovery and potential bottlenecks in new home supply[6]