Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-24 09:20Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1600 - 1660 in the short - term [7] - The domestic urea market fluctuated narrowly at a low level this week. The average price of mainstream small and medium - sized particles in Shandong dropped by 20 yuan/ton week - on - week [8] - Recently, new urea plants in China have stopped production, and the output has decreased slightly. Next week, the probability of output increase is high. Agricultural demand has increased moderately, and industrial demand is tepid. The inventory may still show an increasing trend [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1600 - 1660 in the short - term [7] - Market review: The domestic urea market fluctuated narrowly at a low level this week. The average price of mainstream small and medium - sized particles in Shandong dropped to 1500 - 1560 yuan/ton, with an average price down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week [8] - Market outlook: New urea plants have stopped production, and the output has decreased slightly. Next week, the probability of output increase is high. Agricultural demand has increased moderately, and industrial demand is tepid. Inventory may still increase [8] 3.2 Futures Market - Futures price: The price of the main urea contract in Zhengzhou closed up with a weekly increase of 2.5% [11] - Inter - period spread: As of October 24, the UR 1 - 5 spread was - 77 [14] - Position analysis: Not detailed in the provided content - Futures warehouse receipts: As of October 24, there were 5407 urea warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou, a decrease of 887 from last week [23] 3.3 Spot Market - Domestic spot price: As of October 23, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1550 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the mainstream price in Jiangsu was 1550 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [27] - Foreign spot price: As of October 23, the FOB price of urea in China was 360 US dollars/ton, with no change from last week [31] - Basis: As of October 23, the urea basis was - 88 yuan/ton, a decrease of 46 yuan/ton from last week [35] 3.4 Industry Chain - Upstream: As of October 22, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 685 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from last week. As of October 23, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.29 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.29 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [39] - Industry: As of October 23, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 127.79 tons, a decrease of 4.26 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 3.23%; the capacity utilization rate was 78.03%, a decrease of 2.61% from the previous period. As of October 23, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 21 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 23.6 tons, a decrease of 52.91%. As of October 22, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 163.02 tons, an increase of 1.48 tons from last week, a week - on - week increase of 0.92%. In September 2025, urea exports were 137.12 tons, a month - on - month increase of 72.12%; the average export price was 424.93 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 93.01% [42][45][48] - Downstream: As of October 23, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 27.71%, a week - on - week increase of 3.53 percentage points. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 48.30%, a decrease of 6.88 percentage points from last week [51]