Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-24 09:20Overall Summary - Report title: "Soda Ash and Glass Market Weekly Report" [1] - Report date: October 24, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Huang Wenjie [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Report's Core View - This week, soda ash futures rose 1.65%, while glass futures fell 0.27%. Soda ash showed an upward trend due to production - cut expectations, and glass maintained bottom - level oscillations because of inventory increases and low real - estate sentiment [6]. - For soda ash, supply is expected to be affected by some enterprises' planned short - term shutdowns for maintenance next week. Demand from the glass industry remains at a low level, and with the "anti - involution" process in the photovoltaic glass industry, future demand for soda ash will weaken. Overall, supply exceeds demand, putting downward pressure on prices [6]. - For glass, the "coal - to - gas" project in the Shahe area and the policy of banning new glass production capacity may lead to short - term supply reduction. However, the real - estate industry, the largest downstream demand sector, is still in a slump, and glass demand remains weak [6]. - Trading strategies are suggested: for the SA2601 contract, trade in the 1200 - 1260 range with stop - loss at 1180 - 1300; for the FG2601 contract, operate in the 1080 - 1130 range with stop - loss at 1060 - 1150 [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Market Review: Soda ash futures rose 1.65%, and glass futures fell 0.27% this week. Soda ash had a slight upward trend, and glass was at the bottom [6]. - Market Outlook: For soda ash, supply may decrease due to enterprise maintenance, demand from the glass industry is weak, and inventory is increasing. For glass, potential supply reduction factors exist, but demand from the real - estate industry is still low [6]. - Strategy Recommendation: SA2601 contract, trade in the 1200 - 1260 range with stop - loss at 1180 - 1300; FG2601 contract, operate in the 1080 - 1130 range with stop - loss at 1060 - 1150 [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Prices: Soda ash futures prices rose, and glass futures prices fell this week [8]. - Spot Prices: As of October 23, 2025, the mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash in the Shahe market was 1185 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton week - on - week; the price of 5.0mm large - plate glass in the Shahe market was 1052 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton week - on - week [15][21]. - Basis: The soda ash basis strengthened, and the glass basis weakened and is expected to flatten in the future [13][17]. - Price Spread: The soda ash - glass price spread strengthened this week and is expected to continue strengthening next week. As of October 23, 2025, the glass - soda ash price spread was 127 yuan/ton [23][25]. 3.3 Industry Chain Analysis - Soda Ash Production: As of October 23, 2025, the national soda ash operating rate was 84.01%, down 2.06% week - on - week; the national weekly output was 74.06 tons, up 0.01% week - on - week. Output is expected to increase slightly next week [27][32]. - Profitability: By October 23, 2025, the theoretical profit of soda ash by the dual - ton joint - alkali method was - 175 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week; the theoretical profit of soda ash by the ammonia - alkali method was - 132 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton week - on - week. The profit of glass enterprises decreased, mainly due to the weakening of spot prices [34][39]. - Glass Production: As of October 23, 2025, there were 296 domestic glass production lines (excluding zombie lines), 226 in operation, and 70 cold - repaired. The national float - glass output was 112.89 tons, with no change week - on - week, and is expected to remain low next week [41][46]. - Photovoltaic Glass: As of October 23, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of photovoltaic glass enterprises was 67.82%, down 1.02% week - on - week; the daily melting volume was 88,680 tons/day, down 100 tons/day week - on - week, and is expected to remain stable next week [48][50]. - Inventory: As of October 23, 2025, the inventory of soda ash enterprises was 170.21 tons, up 0.09% week - on - week; the total glass inventory was 66.613 million heavy boxes, up 3.63% week - on - week. Inventory reduction is expected to slow down next week [52][56]. - Downstream Demand: As of October 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 10.4 days, indicating a slight recovery but still low demand [58][60]