铜日报：两大矛盾力挺铜价，近期关注美政府停摆时间节点-20251024

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The copper price is expected to remain in a high - level oscillation around 85,000 yuan in the next 1 - 2 weeks. The main contradictions are the balance - sheet gap caused by Freeport canceling the 4th - quarter sales contract after the Indonesian mine accident and the increase in precious - metal demand due to the decline in the US national credit caused by the federal government shutdown. As long as these contradictions continue, the copper price is unlikely to decline. In the short term, the focus is on the US government shutdown event [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - 主力合约与基差: On October 23, the price of the SHFE copper main contract rose to 85,710 yuan/ton, a 0.75% increase from the previous day. However, the spot premium/discount generally weakened. The discount of flat - copper widened to - 10 yuan/ton, and that of wet - copper deepened to - 55 yuan/ton. The LME (0 - 3) discount narrowed to - 6.36 dollars/ton, a significant improvement from - 30.22 dollars/ton the previous week [1]. - 持仓与成交: The LME copper open interest contracted slightly for two consecutive days, indicating cautious market sentiment. The domestic spot market was inactive, with the premium/discount in North China dropping to a discount of 240 yuan/ton, and downstream resistance to high prices was significant [2]. 3.1.2 Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - 供给端: Short - term disturbances intensified. Jinlong Copper started its annual overhaul on October 11, which might affect the refined - copper output for that month. The Tetelo Copper Mine in Angola is about to be put into production, and Southeast Copper's optimization of sulfur - iron concentrate batching has enhanced its cold - material processing capacity, increasing the medium - and long - term supply increment expectation [3]. - 需求端: Structural differentiation was prominent. Chinese demand was significantly suppressed by high prices. After the copper price exceeded 85,000 yuan/ton, orders from enameled - wire and processing enterprises decreased significantly, and end - users turned to consuming their own inventories. The US and India became new growth poles, and infrastructure and new - energy demand in the US provided support for the copper price [4]. - 库存端: On October 23, the SMM national copper inventory decreased by 0.5 tons week - on - week to 18.16 tons, mainly due to a short - term decline in imports and domestic arrivals. However, domestic supplies are expected to increase later. With the continuous decline of LME inventory for three weeks, the marginal reduction of global visible inventory supported the price [5]. 3.1.3 Market Summary The copper price may remain in a high - level oscillation around 85,000 yuan in the next 1 - 2 weeks. The main contradictions are still the balance - sheet gap and the increase in precious - metal demand, and the short - term focus is on the US government shutdown [6]. 3.2 Industry Chain Price Monitoring On October 23, the SMM 1 copper price was 85,530 yuan/ton, a 0.48% increase from the previous day. The premium of premium - copper decreased by 33.33% to 40 yuan/ton, the discount of flat - copper widened by 200% to - 10 yuan/ton, and the discount of wet - copper deepened by 22.22% to - 55 yuan/ton. The LME (0 - 3) discount widened by 81.60% to - 12 dollars/ton. The SHFE price rose to 85,710 yuan/ton, a 0.75% increase, and the LME price rose to 10,817 dollars/ton, a 1.49% increase. The LME inventory decreased by 1.38% to 36,048 tons, the SHFE inventory increased by 0.05% to 136,925 tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 0.29% to 347,498 short tons [8]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On October 23, Jinlong Copper's 2025 annual equipment overhaul started on October 11, with 22 fixed - asset investment projects and 320 regular overhaul projects planned, and the work is progressing smoothly [9]. - As of October 23, the SMM national copper inventory decreased by 0.5 tons week - on - week to 18.16 tons. Import and domestic arrivals were low, but domestic supplies are expected to increase, and demand is expected to pick up, so the weekly inventory is expected to increase [10]. - The Tetelo Copper Mine in Angola, held by China's ShiningStarIcarus with an investment of 250 million dollars, is about to start production. It is expected to produce 25,000 tons of copper concentrate annually in the first two years, starting with open - pit mining and switching to underground mining in the second half of 2026 [10]. - On October 22, Southeast Copper achieved a "zero breakthrough" in the procurement of sulfur - iron concentrate, which can improve smelting heat income, optimize the batching structure, and enhance cold - material processing capacity [10]. - On October 21, copper - consumption growth is being driven by the US and India, while the growth rate of Chinese demand is slowing down [10]. 3.4 Industry Chain Data Charts The report includes charts on China PMI, US PMI, US employment, the correlation between the US interest rate and LME copper price, the correlation between the US dollar index and LME copper price, TC processing fees, CFTC copper open interest, LME copper net - long open interest analysis, Shanghai copper warrant volume, LME copper inventory change, COMEX copper inventory change, and SMM social inventory [11][16][15].