基础化工行业:四中全会强调创新研发和绿色发展
Dongxing Securities·2025-10-24 09:31

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the basic chemical industry, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by more than 5% [2][18]. Core Insights - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session emphasized that technological innovation and green development are long-term goals for the chemical industry, which will drive future growth [3][5]. - Technological innovation is identified as a key trend, with a focus on high-end materials and domestic replacements in the chemical sector, particularly in electronic chemical materials [4]. - Green development is highlighted as a foundation for sustainable growth, with government policies aimed at energy conservation and carbon reduction expected to improve supply-demand dynamics in certain sub-industries [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The chemical industry is projected to benefit from increased R&D investments, leading to breakthroughs in high-barrier fine chemicals and new materials, with domestic leaders likely to gain market share [4]. Policy Impact - The government's push for green transformation, including a target to reduce carbon emissions by approximately 110 million tons, is expected to accelerate the elimination of outdated capacities in high-energy-consuming sectors [5]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on sub-industries with improving supply-demand dynamics, leading companies with capital expenditure and R&D driving long-term growth, and high-end chemical new materials benefiting from increased demand or domestic replacements [5]. Company Recommendations - Recommended companies include Longbai Group, Hualu Hengsheng, Yangnong Chemical, Xinheng Cheng, and Guocera Materials, all of which are expected to perform strongly in the market [5][12]. Financial Projections - Earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key companies are provided, with Longbai Group projected to have an EPS of 1.30 in 2026 and a PE ratio of 14.98, indicating strong performance [7][12].