黑色商品日报（2025 年 10 月 24 日）-20251024

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel: The steel market is expected to experience narrow - range consolidation. Although the supply - demand data has improved with a slight increase in production, a decline in inventory, and an increase in apparent demand, the market has a generally pessimistic outlook on future demand, and there is still significant pressure on the supply - demand side. However, the current price valuation is not high, and the strong performance of coking coal and coke prices strengthens the cost support for steel [1]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore price is expected to show a range - bound oscillation. With a slight increase in shipments from Australia and Brazil and other countries on the supply side, and a decrease in molten iron production on the demand side, along with a continuous decline in steel mill profitability and pressure on steel inventories, the steel demand remains weak, and the coking coal and coke prices are strong [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures market is expected to have a wide - range oscillation. Due to stricter safety inspections at coal mines, limited production release, and smooth shipments, the coal mine inventory has decreased significantly. Although coking enterprises have limited production, they still have a strong rigid demand for high - quality coking coal [1]. - Coke: The coke futures market is expected to have a wide - range oscillation. The sharp rise in coking coal prices has increased the production cost of coke and deteriorated the profit margin of coking enterprises, leading to an expected increase in production restrictions. Meanwhile, steel mills' demand for coke has increased due to high - level blast furnace operation and a decline in inventory [1]. - Manganese Silicon: The manganese silicon price is expected to be firm and oscillate slightly stronger. After the end of an important meeting, market sentiment has been boosted, and the price center of manganese silicon has moved up slightly. Although the fundamentals have limited driving forces, with an increase in production and a decline in demand and an increase in inventory, the market sentiment has a positive impact [1][3]. - Silicon Iron: The silicon iron price is expected to maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend. Market sentiment has been boosted, and although the production has slightly decreased and the demand is still to be stimulated, and the inventory is at a high level in recent years, the fundamentals provide some support [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views | Variety | Closing Price | Price Change | Price Change Rate | Position Change | Supply - Demand Situation | Market Outlook | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Steel (Rebar) | 3071 yuan/ton | +3 yuan/ton | +0.1% | - 0.82 million hands | Production increased by 5.91 million tons week - on - week, social inventory decreased by 18.93 million tons, factory inventory decreased by 0.01 million tons, and apparent demand increased by 6.26 million tons | Narrow - range consolidation [1] | | Iron Ore | 777 yuan/ton | +3 yuan/ton | +0.4% | +0.3 million hands | Shipments from Australia and Brazil increased slightly, molten iron production decreased by 1.05 million tons, and port inventory increased by 147.62 million tons | Range - bound oscillation [1] | | Coking Coal | 1258.5 yuan/ton | +49 yuan/ton | +4.05% | +86290 hands | Stricter safety inspections, limited production release, and a significant decrease in coal mine inventory | Wide - range oscillation [1] | | Coke | 1768 yuan/ton | +58.5 yuan/ton | +3.42% | +1289 hands | Rising coking coal prices, increased production cost, and expected increase in production restrictions for coking enterprises; increased demand from steel mills | Wide - range oscillation [1] | | Manganese Silicon | 5818 yuan/ton | +0.41% | - | - 4420 hands | Production stopped falling and rebounded, demand decreased, and inventory increased | Oscillate slightly stronger [1][3] | | Silicon Iron | 5574 yuan/ton | +0.94% | - | - 5440 hands | Production decreased by 2.6% week - on - week, demand was limited, and inventory increased | Oscillate slightly stronger [3] | 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Contract Spread and Basis: The data shows the latest values and week - on - week changes of contract spreads (such as 1 - 5 months, 5 - 9 months) and basis for various varieties, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron [4]. - Profit and Spread: The data presents the latest values and week - on - week changes of profits (such as rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) and spreads (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio) for various varieties [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Main Contract Price: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][8][9][11][15]. - Main Contract Basis: There are charts showing the basis of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron [17][18][19][21][22][24]. - Inter - period Contract Spread: There are charts showing the contract spreads of different periods (such as 10 - 01, 01 - 05, 05 - 09) for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron [26][28][29][30][31][33][34][35][37][38][39]. - Inter - variety Contract Spread: There are charts showing the spreads between different varieties, such as the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, coking coal - iron ore ratio, coking coal - coke ratio, and manganese silicon - silicon iron difference [41][42][43][45]. - Rebar Profit: There are charts showing the disk profit, long - process calculation profit, and short - process calculation profit of rebar from 2020 to 2025 [46][47][48][49][50]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Assistant Director of the Research Institute and Director of Black Research at Everbright Futures. He has nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry, with multiple industry honors. His futures trading qualification numbers are F3046854 and Z0016941 [52]. - Zhang Xiaojin: Director of Resource Product Research at Everbright Futures. She has rich experience in the field of black commodities and has won many industry awards. Her futures trading qualification numbers are F0306200 and Z0000082 [52]. - Liu Xi: Black Researcher at Everbright Futures. She is good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data. Her futures trading qualification numbers are F03087689 and Z0019538 [52]. - Zhang Chunjie: Black Researcher at Everbright Futures. He has experience in investment companies and spot - futures trading companies, passed the CFA Level II exam, and is good at investment trading strategies and spot - futures analysis. His futures trading qualification number is F03132960 [53].