工业硅、多晶硅日报-20251024

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - On the 23rd, industrial silicon fluctuated strongly. The main contract 2511 closed at 8,705 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 2.41%. The position decreased by 20,359 lots to 76,000 lots. The reference price of Baichuan industrial silicon spot was 9,523 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 remained stable at 8,900 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 145 yuan/ton. Polysilicon also fluctuated strongly. The main contract 2511 closed at 50,760 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 1.05%. The position decreased by 3,609 lots to 45,407 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material rose to 52,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material rose to 52,500 yuan/ton. The spot premium widened to 1,740 yuan/ton. The supply of industrial silicon is increasing, while the demand side faces the expectation of production control in the crystalline silicon industry. The maintenance of the organic silicon industry and the limited supply of aluminum alloys have comprehensively suppressed the market. Attention should be paid to the resumption time and supplementary volume scale in the north. Considering the resumption rhythm in Xinjiang, short-selling operations should be carried out at high levels for the far-month contracts. The state will regulate the photovoltaic production capacity, and the news of the storage platform has boosted market sentiment. The policy expectation for the far-month contracts still provides support. The concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts in November means that there is still room for the near-month contracts to trade at a discount. Continuous attention should be paid to the latest developments and the inventory-consumption trend [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Industrial Silicon: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 8,485 yuan/ton on the 22nd to 8,705 yuan/ton on the 23rd, an increase of 220 yuan/ton. The spot prices of most grades remained stable, and the spot premium narrowed from 235 yuan/ton to 145 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 367 to 48,371, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 8,715 to 241,855 tons. The total social inventory remained unchanged at 445,500 tons [3] - Polysilicon: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 50,310 yuan/ton on the 22nd to 50,760 yuan/ton on the 23rd, an increase of 450 yuan/ton. The spot prices of most grades remained stable, and the spot premium widened from 1,640 yuan/ton to 1,740 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts decreased by 80 to 9,220, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 18,000 tons to 276,600 tons. The total social inventory remained unchanged at 264,000 tons [3] - Organic Silicon: The price of DMC in the East China market decreased from 11,300 yuan/ton to 11,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The prices of raw rubber and 107 glue remained stable, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased from 11,800 yuan/ton to 13,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,700 yuan/ton [3] 3.2 Chart Analysis - Industrial Silicon and Cost Side Prices: The charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [4][6][9] - Downstream Product Prices: The charts show the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [12][14][18] - Inventory: The charts show the futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, and weekly inventory changes of industrial silicon, as well as the weekly inventory of DMC and polysilicon [20][22] - Cost and Profit: The charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, the weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, the profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, the cost and profit of DMC, and the cost and profit of polysilicon [26][28][34] 3.3 Team Introduction - The non-ferrous metals team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non-ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with more than a decade of commodity research experience. Wang Heng is a non-ferrous researcher focusing on aluminum and silicon, and Zhu Xi is a non-ferrous researcher focusing on lithium and nickel [36][37]