有色商品日报-20251024

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Overnight LME copper prices rose 1.49% to $10,817 per ton, with domestic prices slightly following. The "15th Five-Year Plan" proposal, Sino-US consultations, and improved market risk appetite boosted copper prices, and attention is on whether LME copper can break through previous highs [1]. - Overnight alumina trended weakly, while aluminum and aluminum alloy trended strongly. Alumina inventory reached a 3 - year high, with supply surplus pressure increasing, but it may be bottoming out. Aluminum ingot supply declined, and the de - stocking process was optimistic [1][2]. - Overnight LME nickel rose 1.29% and Shanghai nickel rose 0.8%. First - grade nickel inventory pressure was evident, and nickel prices were expected to fluctuate widely, with caution for macro - level disturbances [2]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Research Views - Copper: Overnight LME copper prices increased. US housing data was stable, and Sino - US consultations were scheduled. The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal enhanced market confidence. LME, Comex, and domestic inventories showed different trends. Market risk appetite improved, and copper prices were expected to strengthen [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina trended weakly, while aluminum and aluminum alloy trended strongly. Alumina inventory hit a 3 - year high, with some high - cost producers near the break - even point. Overseas supply decreased, and domestic aluminum water supply increased, leading to a decline in aluminum ingot supply and optimistic de - stocking [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight LME and Shanghai nickel prices rose. LME and domestic SHFE nickel inventories decreased. The nickel - stainless steel and new energy industries had different situations. First - grade nickel inventory pressure was significant, and nickel prices were expected to fluctuate widely [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: Prices of various copper products increased, and inventory changes were mixed. The LME0 - 3 premium decreased, and the active contract import loss decreased [3]. - Lead: Prices of lead products generally increased, and inventory changes were different. The 3 - cash CIF bill of lading price and active contract import profit increased [3]. - Aluminum: Aluminum prices increased slightly, and inventory decreased. Alumina inventory increased. The 3 - cash CIF bill of lading price and active contract import loss decreased [4]. - Nickel: Nickel prices increased slightly, and inventory changes were mixed. The 3 - cash CIF bill of lading price and active contract import loss decreased [4]. - Zinc: The main settlement price increased by 0.9%. Inventory changes were different, and the active contract import loss turned to zero [6]. - Tin: The main settlement price decreased slightly. Inventory decreased, and the active contract import loss decreased [6]. Chart Analysis - Spot Premium: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][10][11]. - SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: Charts present the historical trends of SHFE near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][20][21]. - LME Inventory: Charts display the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [23][25][27]. - SHFE Inventory: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [29][31][33]. - Social Inventory: Charts present the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [35][37][39]. - Smelting Profit: Charts display the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [41][43][47]. Non - Core Content (Team Introduction) - The research team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, with rich experience and professional qualifications in the non - ferrous metals field [50][51]