中原期货晨会纪要-20251024

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the latest market data and trends in multiple sectors including chemicals, agriculture, macro - economy, and various financial products. It analyzes price movements, supply - demand relationships, and provides trading suggestions for different commodities and financial instruments based on current market conditions [4][7][12]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Chemicals - Price Changes: On October 24, 2025, among chemical products, crude oil rose by 2.197% to 469.80, fuel oil rose by 2.180% to 2,812.00, and 20 - number rubber rose by 1.609% to 12,630.00. Glass fell by 1.534% to 1,091.00, and coking coal fell by 0.596% to 1,251.00 [4]. 3.2 Agriculture - Price Changes: On October 24, 2025, cotton No.1 rose by 0.074% to 13,585.00, and cotton yarn rose by 0.151% to 19,850.00. Rapeseed oil fell by 0.543% to 9,704.00, and palm oil fell by 0.066% to 9,126.00 [4]. 3.3 Macro - Economy - Policy and Event Updates: The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China released a communiqué with economic and social development goals for the "14th Five - Year Plan" period. China and the US will hold economic and trade consultations. The EU listed Chinese enterprises in the 19th round of sanctions against Russia, and China urged the EU to stop. The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council held a symposium on the "14th Five - Year Plan" of central enterprises [7][8]. - Economic Data: In the first three quarters of 2025, the national total social electricity consumption reached 7.77 trillion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. As of October 22, 2025, the number of subsidy applications for automobile trade - ins exceeded 10 million, with new energy vehicles accounting for 57.2% [8][9]. 3.4 Main Variety Morning Meeting Views - Agriculture - Peanuts: On October 23, the peanut futures closed at 7,818 yuan/ton. It is recommended to trade within the 7,700 - 7,900 range, focusing on the support at 7,800 [12]. - Sugar: On October 23, sugar futures closed at 5,457 yuan/ton. It is expected to fluctuate between 5,400 - 5,480 in the short term [12]. - Corn: On October 23, corn futures closed at 2,140 yuan/ton. Short - term light - position long positions can be considered after breaking through 2,130 [12]. - Hogs: The national average price of hogs was 11.74 yuan/kg, showing a weak and volatile trend [12]. - Eggs: The spot price of eggs was stable with a slight increase. The futures market is expected to remain weak [12]. - Cotton: On October 23, cotton futures closed at 13,575 yuan/ton. It is recommended to pay attention to the breakthrough of the 13,500 - 13,600 range [12]. - Energy and Chemicals - Urea: The domestic urea market price rebounded slightly. Supply pressure is expected to increase, and the upward space is limited [13]. - Caustic Soda: The market expectation is weak, and the 2601 contract is under pressure [13]. - Coking Coal and Coke: It is expected that the prices of coking coal and coke will continue to fluctuate within a range [13][15]. - Industrial Metals - Copper and Aluminum: Supported by macro and supply - demand factors, copper and aluminum prices remain high [17]. - Alumina: The 2601 contract is running weakly due to an oversupply situation [18]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Steel prices are supported at low levels, and the fundamentals are improving [18]. - Ferroalloys: The overall view is a wide - range fluctuation, and the industrial rebound hedging idea remains unchanged [20]. - Lithium Carbonate: The price has broken through the previous range. Short - term attention should be paid to the 80,000 yuan pressure level [20]. - Options and Finance - Stock Index Futures: On October 23, the A - share market rose, and the trading volume continued to shrink. Trend investors can focus on arbitrage opportunities, and volatility investors can consider buying straddles or wide - straddles [20][21].