冠通期货：温和上涨

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "moderate upward" rating for the urea industry [1] Report Core View - The urea futures are rising moderately, and the spot market is gradually recovering. With the progress of farming seasons and the resumption of work in compound fertilizer plants, the market trend is expected to remain strong. Attention should be paid to policy changes [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The urea futures opened high and moved higher on October 24, 2025, with a strong intraday performance. The market's follow - up buying sentiment was obvious, and the trading sentiment was fair. The ex - factory prices of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranged from 1520 - 1560 yuan/ton, with price increases of 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and Hebei's quotes were relatively high [1][5] - On the supply side, the daily production is slightly decreasing, but there will be unit restarts and new unit commissions. Before natural gas curtailment, daily production will not be significantly reduced. The price of动力煤 (bituminous coal used for power generation) is rising, increasing the cost of urea production. Natural gas - based enterprises are continuously losing money, and Zhongyuan Dahua has shut down for maintenance. As the heating season approaches, the operating rate of natural gas enterprises is expected to decline [1] - On the demand side, compound fertilizer plants increased their operating loads this period, with a month - on - month increase of about 3.53% but a year - on - year decrease of 2.03%. The finished product inventory is still in the destocking stage. The start - up in Northeast China may be postponed, and the growth rate of the factory operating rate may slow down [1] - Currently, it is in the inventory accumulation stage, but the inventory increase this period is slower than the previous one [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The main urea contract 2601 opened at 1633 yuan/ton, closed at 1642 yuan/ton, up 0.74%. The trading volume was 286338 lots, a decrease of 12502 lots [2] - On October 24, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 5407, a decrease of 77 from the previous trading day. Among them, Anyang Wanzhuang (Sichuan Agricultural Materials) decreased by 7, Anyang Wanzhuang decreased by 2, Hengshui Mianma decreased by 18, and Liaoning Fertilizer (Aipu Holdings) decreased by 50 [2] - Among the top 20 long and short positions in the main contract, the long positions decreased by 3327 lots, and the short positions decreased by 8622 lots. Hongyuan Futures had a net long position of +691 lots, Zhongtai Futures had a net long position of +779 lots; Guotai Junan had a net short position of +2256 lots, and CITIC Futures had a net short position of -4124 lots [2][3] Spot - The continuous rise of futures has led to obvious follow - up buying sentiment in the market, and the trading sentiment is fair. The ex - factory prices of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranged from 1520 - 1560 yuan/ton, with price increases of 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and Hebei's quotes were relatively high [1][5] Fundamental Tracking Basis - The mainstream spot market quotes rose, and the futures closing price increased. Based on the Henan region, the basis weakened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the January contract was -72 yuan/ton, an increase of 16 yuan/ton [8] Supply Data - On October 24, 2025, the national daily urea production was 196,200 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the operating rate was 82.9% [9]