每日核心期货品种分析-20251024

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 24, 2025, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Some commodities like fuel oil, container shipping European routes, and eggs had significant increases, while others like red dates and polysilicon declined. Stock index futures generally rose, and treasury bond futures mostly fell. Different commodities have different market trends and influencing factors, with some showing upward trends but facing pressure, some in a state of supply - demand balance, and others with uncertain outlooks due to various factors such as macro - economic data, supply - demand fundamentals, and geopolitical events [7]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Commodity Performance - Futures Market Overview - As of the close on October 24, domestic futures main contracts showed more gains than losses. Fuel oil, container shipping European routes, and eggs rose over 3%, international copper nearly 3%, and Shanghai copper and SC crude oil over 2%. Red dates fell over 4%, polysilicon over 1%, and rebar nearly 1%. Stock index futures rose, with CSI 1000 rising 2.41% leading the way, while treasury bond futures mostly fell, with the 30 - year treasury bond futures falling 0.24% the most. In terms of capital flow, Shanghai copper 2512 had an inflow of 2.504 billion yuan, while CSI 1000 2512 had an outflow of 5.183 billion yuan [7]. Market Analysis - Shanghai Copper: Opened high and went high, rising during the day. September 2025 refined copper production was 1.266 million tons, up 10.1% year - on - year and down 2.7% month - on - month. 1 - 9 months cumulative production was 11.125 million tons, up 10.0% year - on - year. Copper price is supported by rigid demand and expected tight supply, but the high price is hard for downstream to accept. The price trend is still upward but with pressure, so be cautious about chasing the rise [9][10]. - Lithium Carbonate: Opened high and went high, oscillating strongly. Battery - grade and industrial - grade prices both rose 600 yuan/ton. Supply is growing steadily, and demand from the downstream battery industry is strong. The inventory in September was significantly reduced, and the price is supported by fundamentals [11]. - Crude Oil: OPEC + will increase production in November, increasing supply pressure. The demand peak season is over, but US refinery operations rebounded, and inventories decreased. The price is expected to rebound at a low level, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and the Russia - Ukraine peace talks [12][13]. - Asphalt: Supply decreased slightly in October. Downstream industry operations mostly rose, and national shipments increased. The inventory - to - sales ratio decreased slightly. With the rebound of crude oil prices, the basis in Shandong has dropped significantly. It is recommended to observe the asphalt futures price cautiously [14]. - PP: Downstream operations rebounded slightly, and the enterprise operation rate was around 80%. New production capacity was put into operation, and recent maintenance increased. Cost rose due to the rebound of crude oil prices. The demand in the peak season was less than expected, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [15][16]. - Plastic: The operation rate was around 86.5%, and downstream operations rose. New production capacity was put into operation. The demand in the peak season was less than expected, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [17]. - PVC: The upstream calcium carbide price rose. Supply decreased slightly, and downstream operations continued to rise. Export expectations weakened in the fourth quarter, and social inventory was high. New production capacity was put into operation. It is expected to oscillate in the near future [19]. - Coking Coal: Opened high and went high, oscillating strongly. Mongolian coal imports decreased, and domestic supply was short. Demand from coke enterprises supported the price, but downstream steel mills' profits shrank. Pay attention to major conferences and Mongolian coal imports [20][21]. - Urea: The futures price rose, and the spot market followed. Daily production decreased slightly, and the cost increased. Demand from compound fertilizer factories increased, and inventory accumulation was slow. The market is expected to be strong, and attention should be paid to policy changes [22].