Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton and sugar are both "Oscillation" [2] Group 2: Core Views - For cotton, on Thursday, ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.44% to 64.02 cents per pound, and CF601 rose 0.26% to 13,575 yuan per ton. The position of the main contract increased by 6,744 lots to 599,600 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,575 yuan per ton, up 15 yuan from the previous day. There are still macro - level disturbances in the international market, and the U.S. dollar index has large fluctuations. In the domestic market, the recent rise in the price of Zhengzhou cotton futures is due to macro - level good news and different views on the increase in domestic new cotton production in the 2025/26 season. The purchase price of machine - picked cotton in southern Xinjiang has also increased slightly. In the short term, the kinetic energy for Zhengzhou cotton to break through the range oscillation is still relatively weak, with supply increments and hedging pressure above and cost and expectations as support below. It is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term, but the upward space may be limited [2] - For sugar, the spot quotes of Guangxi and some processing sugar groups have decreased. Raw sugar is testing the support at 15 cents per pound. Domestic terminals are in a wait - and - see state and purchase as needed. Spot prices are reducing inventory through price cuts. Weather in the next month is crucial for sugar accumulation, and the market will focus on the game of the deviation of the production increase expectation. In the short term, cost support is emerging, and it should be treated with an oscillation mindset [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Daily Data Monitoring - For cotton, the 1 - 5 contract spread is - 25, up 15; the main basis is 1,209, down 28. The spot price in Xinjiang is 14,652 yuan per ton, up 9, and the national spot price is 14,784 yuan per ton, up 12 [3] - For sugar, the 1 - 5 contract spread is 38, down 8; the main basis is 303, down 41. The spot price in Nanning is 5,750 yuan per ton, unchanged, and in Liuzhou is 5,760 yuan per ton, down 10 [3] Market Information - On October 23, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 2,526, down 39 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 482 [4] - On October 23, the arrival prices of cotton in different domestic regions were: 14,652 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 14,794 yuan per ton in Henan, 14,806 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 14,935 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [4] - On October 23, the comprehensive load of yarn was 51.4, unchanged from the previous day; the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 26, down 0.2. The comprehensive load of short - fiber cloth was 51.9, down 0.1, and the comprehensive inventory of short - fiber cloth was 29.6, unchanged [4] - On October 23, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5,770 yuan per ton, unchanged, and in Liuzhou was 5,760 yuan per ton, down 10 [4] - On October 23, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 8,196, down 117 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 0 [5]
光大期货软商品日报-20251024
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-10-24 09:50