乌海焦煤、蒙煤调研：缺口累积，焦煤再启动？

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The supply of coking coal in Inner Mongolia is difficult to increase, and a supply gap is expected to accumulate in November. The coking coal production in Wuhai has been low since the second half of this year, and it is expected to remain difficult to increase in the remaining time of this year. With safety inspections in Shanxi coal mines in November and the impact of political chaos on Mongolian coal supply, the supply gap of coking coal in Inner Mongolia is expected to accumulate. Downstream coking enterprises can only passively accept the price increase of coking coal until significant production cuts by steel mills in December [18]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Research Background - Wuhai is an important production area of high - strength coking coal. It has rich coal resources, with an annual coal production capacity of about 40 million tons. Most of the coal produced is coking coal, mainly fat coal, main coking coal, and 1/3 coking coal, which are high - quality skeleton coal types for coking, but have a high sulfur content. In recent years, the price difference with Shanxi coking coal has narrowed, and it has lost some cost - effectiveness. Since May this year, there have been reports of large - scale shutdowns of coking coal mines in Wuhai, and the production has decreased significantly in the second half of the year [3][7]. 2. Wuhai Open - pit Mines are Continuously Shut Down and Difficult to Resume Production - All open - pit mines in Wuhai are basically shut down, mainly due to coal mine capacity integration, high - intensity environmental inspections, self - inspection of over - production, and tax issues. Capacity integration is to solve the problem of cross - ownership of coal mines between Wuhai and neighboring areas. Environmental inspections have been high - intensity since June. The over - production of open - pit mines has been significantly suppressed, and many private mines lack the motivation to resume production. It is unlikely that coking coal mines in Wuhai will resume production in the short term, and the supply of coking coal in Inner Mongolia is likely to decrease rather than increase in November [8][9][11]. 3. Coking Enterprises in Wuhai and Surrounding Areas are Marginally Profitable and Have Low In - Furnace Coal Inventory - Wuhai is the main coking supply area in Inner Mongolia, with a coking production capacity of over 30 million tons, accounting for more than half of the total capacity in the autonomous region. Due to the abnormal production of local coal mines, local coking plants have increased the purchase of Shanxi coal. Large - scale coking plants with long chemical product chains can make a profit of about 50 yuan/ton, while small and medium - sized coking plants are basically at the break - even point. The in - furnace coal inventory of coking plants is low, with raw coal available for 5 - 15 days, and they have no intention to replenish inventory for the time being. The overall coal - coking inventory in Wuhai is low, and it is expected to be even more in short supply in November [12]. 4. Mongolian Coal Imports are Affected by Political Disturbances in Mongolia - The customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port has decreased from 1,200 trucks per day to 600 - 900 trucks per day. The political turmoil in Mongolia may affect the production and export of state - owned coal mines such as ETT. The large - scale electronic auction of Mongolian coal has squeezed the long - term contract resources, resulting in a decline in the import volume of some large - scale trading companies. The long - term contract sales volume of imported Mongolian coal is expected to be difficult to increase this year. The import proportion of Mongolian No. 5 clean coal has decreased significantly, and more Mongolian 1/3 coking coal and weathered coal will be imported in the future. The supply of imported Mongolian coal is expected to be difficult to increase significantly in the short term, and the resources of Mongolian No. 5 and No. 3 will be relatively tight [14][17]. 5. Research Summary - The continuous low production of coking coal in Wuhai since the second half of this year has a significant impact on the national coking coal market. The coal mine resource integration in Wuhai takes a long time, environmental inspections remain high - intensity, and there will be safety inspections in November. It is expected that the supply of coking coal in Inner Mongolia will be difficult to increase in the remaining time of this year. With the safety inspections in Shanxi coal mines in November and the impact of political chaos on Mongolian coal supply, a supply gap of coking coal in Inner Mongolia is expected to accumulate in November. Downstream coking enterprises can only passively accept the price increase of coking coal until significant production cuts by steel mills in December [18].