原油日报：原油震荡上行-20251024

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ plans to further increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, which will intensify the crude oil supply pressure in the fourth quarter. The peak season for crude oil demand has ended, but EIA data shows that US refinery operations have rebounded from a low level, and US crude oil inventories have decreased more than expected, as well as refined oil inventories. Overall, the inventory of oil products has decreased. There is a possibility that India will gradually reduce its imports of Russian oil. Russia has extended the export ban on diesel and gasoline until the end of the year, but its crude oil exports remain high. EIA and IEA reports suggest an increase in global oil inventories and a worsening supply glut. Despite the current supply - surplus situation, crude oil prices have fallen significantly since October. Recently, due to factors such as new rounds of economic and trade consultations between China and the US, changes in the US attitude towards Russia, and the escalation of the military stand - off between the US and Venezuela, crude oil prices are expected to continue to rebound from a low level. Attention should be paid to the progress of China - US trade negotiations and Russia - Ukraine peace talks [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On October 5, OPEC+ eight countries decided to further increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, and the next meeting will be held on November 2. The end of the peak oil demand season, weak US non - farm payroll data, and Sino - US trade uncertainties have raised concerns about oil demand. Although the market is in a supply - surplus situation, factors such as Sino - US economic and trade consultations, US sanctions on Russian oil companies, and the escalation of the US - Venezuela military stand - off may cause oil prices to rebound from a low level [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Today, the main crude oil futures contract 2512 rose 2.40% to 464.9 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 462.5 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 471.3 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 2089 to 41,065 lots [2]. Fundamental Tracking - EIA expects the global oil inventory to increase by about 2.6 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025, and has raised the US crude oil production in 2025 by 90,000 barrels per day to 13.53 million barrels per day. It has also raised the average price of Brent crude oil in 2025 from $67.80 per barrel to $68.64 per barrel, but expects the price to fall to $59 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025 and keep the 2026 average at $51.43 per barrel. OPEC has raised the global oil demand growth rate in 2025 by 10,000 barrels per day to 1.3 million barrels per day and maintained the 2026 growth rate at 1.38 million barrels per day. IEA has lowered the 2025 global oil demand growth rate by 30,000 barrels per day to 710,000 barrels per day, and raised the 2025 and 2026 global oil supply growth rates by 300,000 barrels per day to 3 million barrels per day and 2.4 million barrels per day respectively, intensifying the supply glut [3]. Inventory and Production Data - As of the week ending October 17, US crude oil inventories decreased by 961,000 barrels, far lower than the expected increase of 1.205 million barrels and 3.67% lower than the five - year average. Gasoline inventories decreased by 2.147 million barrels, and refined oil inventories decreased by 1.479 million barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 770,000 barrels. OPEC's August crude oil production was adjusted down by 32,000 barrels per day to 27.916 million barrels per day, and its September production increased by 524,000 barrels per day to 28.44 million barrels per day. US crude oil production in the week of October 10 decreased by 7,000 barrels per day to 13.629 million barrels per day, close to the highest level in history [4]. Demand Data - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products has decreased to 20.474 million barrels per day, 2.24% lower than the same period last year. Gasoline weekly demand decreased by 0.01% to 8.454 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 8.587 million barrels per day, 3.61% lower than the same period last year. Diesel weekly demand decreased by 9.12% to 3.847 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 4.011 million barrels per day, 0.19% higher than the same period last year. Although gasoline and diesel demand decreased, an increase in other oil products drove a 1.46% week - on - week increase in the single - week supply of US crude oil products [5][7].