Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The recent cost increase has driven the rebound of PP, but PP itself lacks upward momentum, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.52 percentage points to 52.37% week-on-week, remaining at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving increased by 0.14 percentage points to 44.4% week-on-week, with a slight increase in orders, slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - On October 24th, there were few changes in maintenance devices, and the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 80%, at a moderately low level. The production ratio of standard-grade drawstring dropped to around 24% [1][4] - The inventory accumulation during the National Day this year was similar to previous years, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [1][4] - Cost-wise, the crude oil price has rebounded significantly from a low level. The recent cost increase has driven the rebound of PP, but PP itself lacks upward momentum [1] - The demand in the peak season is lower than expected, and the post - National Day stocking demand has weakened. Traders generally offer discounts to stimulate sales. Concerns about economic growth have intensified, and there are no actual anti - involution policies in the PP industry [1] Group 2: Futures and Spot Market Futures - The PP2601 contract opened higher, then reduced positions and oscillated downward, closing at 6662 yuan/ton with a 0.00% increase. The position volume decreased by 10384 lots to 608100 lots [2] Spot - The spot prices of PP in most regions are stable. The drawstring is quoted at 6390 - 6630 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Fundamental Tracking Supply - On October 24th, there were few changes in maintenance devices, and the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 80%, at a moderately low level [1][4] Demand - As of the week of October 24th, the downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.52 percentage points to 52.37% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving increased by 0.14 percentage points to 44.4% week - on - week, with a slight increase in orders, slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] Inventory - The petrochemical inventory increased by 270,000 tons during the National Day holiday and decreased by 40,000 tons to 720,000 tons on Friday, 5,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [4] Raw Materials - The Brent crude oil 01 contract rose to $65 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $760 per ton [5]
PP日报：高开后震荡下行-20251024
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-10-24 10:23