沥青日报：震荡上行-20251024

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The asphalt market shows an upward - trending volatility. The supply side has a lower - than - normal capacity utilization rate, and the downstream industry's capacity utilization rate has mostly increased. The inventory ratio of asphalt refineries is at a historical low. Considering factors such as international political and economic situations and the current state of the domestic market, it is recommended to cautiously observe the asphalt futures price [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Supply side: This week, the asphalt capacity utilization rate dropped 4.7 percentage points to 31.1% week - on - week, 2.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In October, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 268.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.4 million tons month - on - month (a 0.1% decline) and an increase of 35.0 million tons year - on - year (a 15.0% increase). Shandong Shengxing, Guangzhou Petrochemical and other refineries are under maintenance [1][4]. - Demand side: This week, the capacity utilization rates of most downstream asphalt industries increased. The capacity utilization rate of road asphalt rose 3 percentage points to 32% week - on - week, slightly higher than the same period last year, but is restricted by funds and rainfall in some areas. From January to August, the national highway construction investment decreased 7.1% year - on - year. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in road transportation was - 2.7%, still in negative growth. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) from January to September 2025 was 1.1%, down from 2.0% from January to August [1][4]. - Inventory: As of the week of October 24, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased 0.6 percentage points to 16.0% week - on - week, remaining at the lowest level in recent years [5]. - Market shipment: This week, the refinery supply in East China increased, and the national shipment volume increased 14.73% week - on - week to 29.07 million tons, at a neutral level. Projects in many northern regions are rushing to work, and the market is actively shipping, but funds are still a constraint [1]. - International situation: There will be a new round of economic and trade consultations between China and the United States. The US has imposed sanctions on important Russian oil companies, and the military confrontation between the US and Venezuela has escalated, causing a significant rebound in crude oil prices from a low level [1]. - Suggestion: The basis of asphalt in Shandong has dropped significantly from a high level in recent days and is currently at a moderately high level. It is recommended to cautiously observe the asphalt futures price [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2601 contract rose 0.92% to 3,299 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,279 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,315 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 1,049 to 195,746 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong has risen to 3,350 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract has dropped to 51 yuan/ton, at a moderately high level [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: The capacity utilization rate of asphalt dropped 4.7 percentage points to 31.1% week - on - week, 2.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [4]. - Demand - related investment data: From January to August, the national highway construction investment decreased 7.1% year - on - year. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in road transportation was - 2.7%, slightly up from - 3.3% from January to August. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) from January to September 2025 was 1.1%, down from 2.0% from January to August [4]. - Social financing: From January to September 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.7%, 0.1 percentage points lower than that from January to August. In September, the new social financing reached 3.53 trillion yuan, but with a high base, it was 233.5 billion yuan less year - on - year [4].