冠通期货研究报告：关注经济数据发布

Group 1: Report Core View - Copper price trends are generally upward due to factors such as copper being a substitute for precious metals, rigid downstream demand, and expected tightness in copper mines, but there is pressure on the upside and cautious chasing of rising prices is advised. Attention should be paid to the market's reaction after the release of recent US economic data [1] Group 2: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Today, Shanghai copper opened high and moved higher, showing an intraday increase. The market generally expects that the upcoming US CPI data tonight will not have an excessive impact on the Fed's interest rate cuts. China's refined copper (electrolytic copper) production in September 2025 was 1.266 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.1% and a month-on-month decrease of 2.7%. The cumulative production from January to September was 11.125 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.0%. Copper mine disturbances limit the decline of copper prices, and the positive support from the previous Indonesian copper mine accident to the market has not been eliminated. The port inventory of copper concentrates has decreased this week, and the current inventory is significantly lower than last year. Smelter overhauls are still ongoing, with low output levels. Currently, long-term orders are in the initial discussion stage, and copper mine traders hold relatively few supplies. Although copper is in the peak season of "Silver October", the high copper price driven by macro - stimuli is difficult to be accepted by downstream users, resulting in a weak market trading atmosphere. After the recent price decline, the demand may improve month - on - month. The stable development of the domestic power grid and new energy provides rigid support for demand, and the global industrial demand outlook is optimistic during the Fed's interest rate cut cycle [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened high and moved higher, showing an intraday upward trend. Spot: Today, the spot premium in East China was 0 yuan/ton, and in South China it was 30 yuan/ton. On October 23, 2025, the LME official price was $10,805/ton, and the spot premium was -$8/ton [4] Supply Side - As of the latest data on October 15, the spot smelting charge (TC) was -$40.8 per dry ton, and the spot refining charge (RC) was -4.08 cents per pound [8] Fundamental Tracking - In terms of inventory, SHFE copper inventory was 35,100 tons, a decrease of 7,778 tons from the previous period. As of October 23, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 110,300 tons, an increase of 1,600 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 136,400 tons, an increase of 75 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 347,500 short tons, an increase of 999 short tons from the previous period [11]