塑料日报：高开后震荡下行-20251024

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The recent cost increase has driven the rebound of plastics, but the plastics themselves lack upward momentum. It is expected that plastics will mainly fluctuate weakly [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - On October 24, the number of maintenance devices changed little, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 86.5%, which is currently at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.83 percentage points to 45.75% month - on - month. The agricultural film has entered the peak season, but the peak season is not as good as expected. After the National Day, the stocking demand weakened periodically, and downstream enterprises were not willing to purchase. The cost of crude oil has rebounded significantly at a low level, and new production capacity has been put into operation. There is no actual anti - involution policy in the plastics industry, which will affect the subsequent market [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions 3.2.1 Futures - The plastic 2601 contract opened higher, then reduced positions and oscillated downward. The lowest price was 6957 yuan/ton, the highest price was 7017 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6969 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.07%. The open interest decreased by 2302 lots to 529187 lots [2] 3.2.2 Spot - The PE spot market showed mixed trends, with price changes ranging from - 50 to + 50 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6910 - 7470 yuan/ton, LDPE at 9070 - 9930 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7260 - 8090 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On October 24, the number of maintenance devices changed little, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 86.5%, at a neutral level [4] - Demand: As of the week of October 24, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.83 percentage points to 45.75% month - on - month. The agricultural film has entered the peak season, and orders and raw material inventories have increased, but are still lower than in previous years. Packaging film orders have increased slightly, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [4] - Inventory: During the National Day holiday, the petrochemical inventory increased by 270,000 tons month - on - month. On Friday, it decreased by 40,000 tons to 720,000 tons, 5,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The inventory accumulation during the National Day this year was similar to previous years, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [4] - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 01 contract rose to $65/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $770/ton month - on - month, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $780/ton month - on - month [4]